Despite tipping him to lose his seat at 14/1 I feel very sorry for Pierre Poilievre, but for Donald Trump, Poilievre would have become Prime Minister of Canada today. Today should serve as a salutary lesson for anybody predicting the outcome of the next UK general election which could be over four years away, a lot can happen in a short space of time. TSE
But for a few thousand votes here and there Pierre Poilievre would have become Prime Minister but it is likely he ends up losing his seat such are the fine margins of politics. It is quite the remarkable turnaround considering the Conservatives led by 27% in the polls in January, like Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal who led the Premier League for a record breaking 248 days in the 2022/23 season they blew it in the final stages. One of the hot…
TSE
Mark Carney must thank his lucky stars whilst Pierre Poilievre must have spent the last 6 months smashing every mirror in Canada. It was no coincidence that lead in Canada narrowed whilst Trump stopped talking about Canada becoming the 51st state. TSE
One of the reasons I rate Ipsos is their polling goes back to the 1970s which allows to contextualise current polling. Economic optimism is the lowest in the history of Ipsos really should worry Labour, I think the poor ratings of Rachel Reeves means Labour will get a large share of the blame but the actions of the Orange one in the White House could help Labour avoid the blame for the economic mess, this time it really did start…
If you’ve been backing the Liberals/laying the Conservatives in Canada then this revelation might make you very nervous given how this polling question has predicted Brexit and Trump victories. As noted above the French whale who made over $30 million on Trump winning last November did so asking this question. In the space of a few hours we’ve gone from discussing Pierre Poilievre losing his seat to him winning the most votes, James Kanagasooriam is somebody I respect a lot…
If things turn out as the polls predict then on Monday the Canadian Liberal Party are going to experience the greatest Canadian victory since The Battle of Vimy Ridge. Based on the news reports I think there is stonking value in the 14/1 Ladbrokes are offering on Pierre Poilievre losing his seat. You can find the market here though I expect it will be another addition to my collection of excellent value losers. TSE
There are some PBers, who shall remain nameless, back in 2015, helped Andrea Jenkyns become a Tory MP, a decade later she is on course to become mayor of Greater Lincolnshire for Nigel Farage’s party and this is where a lot of focus will be on as it shows the direction of politics over the last decade. Ladbrokes have some markets up on the various mayoral races (including ones not in the screenshot) and based on these polls from YouGov…