When it comes to Rishi Sunak it appears he will not be remembered for being the UK’s first ethnic minority Prime Minister, or the fact the he is richer than Croesus, or he likely led the Tories to one of their worst defeats in history. No it will be fleeing the D-Day 80th commemorations early. Now I take the view that it takes a few weeks for falls in personal approval ratings to translate in to falls in voting intention…
Like the various PPE scandals this story gives off the impression that the Tories are a bunch of spivs looking to make money through nefarious ways. Whilst the amount is quite low it just looks sleazy. If Craig Williams wanted to make money from political betting he should have followed my 20/1 tip in March that there would be a July election. TSE
I am struggling to see how Jeremy Hunt holds on to the Godalming & Ash seat where I the Lib Dems have been working hard to oust to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. As Chancellor I suspect Hunt will be focussed on national campaigning to the detriment of local campaigning (a bit like Chris Patten in 1992) and that’s bad for his chances even before we consider the issues the Tories face in the blue wall. Below are the odds…
I would have thought the first poll showing Labour in the 30s would have an impact on the betting markets. One of the first things I learned visiting PB in the mid 2000s was a maxim by Sir Robert Worcester which was to ignore the lead but to focus on the share of the vote. I suspect why the betting market hasn’t moved is that appears to be an outlier, the Focaldata poll still has Labour in the 40s but…
Ladbrokes have a market up on what publicity shy antics Sir Ed Davey will get up to before election day. Using the golden rule that you should never get involved in a market where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet applies here. That said I cannot rule out the possibility of Sir Ed being fired out of a cannon. From the outside it appears the Lib Dems are desperate to become the third party again, with all…
This might be bad news for people betting against a 1931 style result in reverse. TSE
Although this polling from More in Common might be sub-optimal for Reform and Farage. Being seen as Dangerous, Idiot, and Racist isn’t how you win seats. TSE
Ric Holden is the Tory Party Chairman who has just completed the chicken run. If he is the sort of Tory MP that will make up the parliamentary party after the election it is why the Tories are likely to have a long spell in opposition, the quality of candidates and MPs is at an all time low. TSE