politicalbetting.com

It’s not been an entirely auspicious start for Starmer’s government and a reshuffle might achieve a reset. It is no surprise that Bridget Phillipson and Lord Hermer are llkely to be moved on, the former for her poor handling of the inevitable consequences of adding VAT to private school fees mid academic year and other assorted problems at the DfE. Lord Hermer is no surprise for the way the Chagos Island deal has been handled, he is proving to be…

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The reality is the bear eighty year long underpinning of NATO by America is over today, Europe will have to raise her defence spending, this tempest was long foretold. For the UK that means a mixture of tax increases and non defence spending cuts unless you want a repeat of the 1930s when appeasement was the policy of the day and rearmament was not popular, but will Starmer deliver this? I have my doubts due to the unpopularity it will…

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Who’d be a politician? You could deliver record breaking growth but the electorate decides it is the wrong type of growth. TSE

A few weeks ago I said I posted that I thought Donald Trump’s successor for the Republican nomination would be someone who he anoints and would likely be a family member and this interview by that Trump reassures me that I am following the correct strategy. Punters reacted to this news and Vance’s position has recovered somewhat but right now I think he’s a lay if you want to tie your money up for that long, I suspect the value…

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Today is the fiftieth anniversary of Margaret Thatcher becoming Tory leader and she has been a trailblazer for women the Tory party has gone to have three further women leaders yet Labour haven’t yet elected their first woman leader in those fifty years. Since Thatcher was elected Labour have eleven leadership contests and in only four of those did any woman stand, by contrast the Tories have thirteen leadership elections since 1975 and in seven of them women have stood,…

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Today represents 100 days since Kemi Badenoch was elected Tory leader, and this polling contains a lot of grief for her, such as losing to Sir Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage, and even Sir Ed Davey on the best PM polling, the latter must sting given how dismissive a lot of Tories are towards the Lib Dems, which is odd given the substantial chance the Lib Dems eclipse the Tories on seat numbers at the next election. The really grim findings…

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One of the recent innovations in UK politics is party members getting to choose the new Prime Minister, a move that I have decried as it leads to things like Liz Truss being elected by 81,326 Tory members who drank the kool-aid and ignored economic reality. Truss and they thought those 81,326 votes gave Truss a mandate to change the country. If Starmer goes before the next election then it will be down to Labour MPs to first back the…

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Well that’s one little mystery solved, I wonder if Boris Johnson attempts a political comeback then Mr Cummings will try and kibosh that as well. TSE