politicalbetting.com

Every week it seems another bank is announcing another round of branch closures but this polling shows why as a majority of Brits visit less a branch less than once a year. With cash being less prevalent it makes sense branch footfall has collapsed Becoming cashless also has many indirect benefits, the decline of cash has many benefits for example it has saved the lives of many children as this article shows ‘Decline of cash credited for drop in NHS…

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Nineteen yeatr since they first took power the SNP are on course to retain power at Holyrood in May despite losing a third of their voters since 2021. I’m not sure there’s any value in the Holyrood betting markets, I suspect the biggest impact from this election might be the pressure that Kemi Badenoch and Sir Keir Starmer will experience after these results. TSE

Very rarely do you see pollsters criticise other pollsters, there’s almost an omerta on this subject, so I find it interesting that Luke Tryl of MoreInCommon, James Johnson of JL Partners, and Martin Boon formerly of ICM and DeltaPoll have criticised this Find Out Now poll. A poll like this not only risks the credibilty of Find Out Now but of the wider polling industry, even if it turns out to be right it will be down to sheer happenstance…

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There has been plenty of movement on Betfair following this poll but The Telegraph report that is based on a sample of just 143 which I think is ludicrously low. The margin of error on this poll is 8% if the sample size correctly recorded. TSE

Getting endorsed by the former Lib Dem Liz Truss is an endorsement politicians would go out of their way to avoid. A fun betting market is if/when Liz Truss will defect to Reform. This month she had lunch with Nigel Farage and just before Christmas she predicted Farage would be the next PM, a defection feels inevitable, after all more members of the cabinet under Liz Truss are now members of Reform than sit in Kemi Badenoch’s cabinet. TSE

One of the main reasons for David Cameron’s detoxification project was some polling in 2005 which showed a policy became less popular when the public found out it was a Tory policy and I’ve also placed much faith in this type of polling. Given the quasi-presidential nature of our general election we have in this country this polling shows that Nigel Farage can be damaging to a policy more than Sir Keir Starmer. This fits my expectation that there could…

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A quick reminder about the 2026 PB Predictions Competition. To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 12 questions onto the site before the end of January with the hashtag #competition somewhere in the post to help the scorer (me) find your entry.  Or, you can private message me @Benpointer with your entry answers.   Questions are weighted equally with 20 points for a correct or a closest answer and 10 points for a near miss,…

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I never thought I would have a smidgen of sympathy for Suella Braverman, especially after she defected, but those close to Kemi Badenoch have managed it, given how well she handled the defection of Robert Jenrick this has undone all that good work. The excuse that it was a draft version won’t work, this isn’t student politics, it should never have been anywhere near a draft. TSE