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Author: TSE

The disconnect between the betting markets

The disconnect between the betting markets

Over the last few days I’ve highlighted how Nigel Farage has become the favourite to be the next Prime Minister which I felt was wrong on a number of levels and the most seats betting market is further proof. The only way I could see Farage becoming Prime Minister after the next general election is if Reform won the most seats (I cannot see if he finished second behind the Tories then the Tories making him PM for example). If…

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Braverman set to defect to Reform (no, not that one, yet)

Braverman set to defect to Reform (no, not that one, yet)

Like many I expect Suella Braverman to defect to Reform at some point in the next few months. I try and see the best in people but I consider Braverman a ghastly person and eve ghastlier politician, the sort of person who would switch off somebody’s life support machine just to charge her phone so she could Tweet something political/on the culture wars. If Suella Braverman did defect it would be no great loss to the Tory Party (just look…

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Nigel Farage is now the favourite to be the next Prime Minister

Nigel Farage is now the favourite to be the next Prime Minister

Yesterday I said there was a chance that Nigel Farage could soon replace Kemi Badenoch as the favourite to be our next Prime Minister and lo and behold it has happened within twenty-four hours. Like those punters who backed Michelle Obama to be the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and/or the winner of the 2024 presidential election I just don’t understand their logic although I am more than happy to take their money. If you are backing Farage in this market…

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Eclipsing Badenoch. Soon Farage could be the favourite to be the next PM

Eclipsing Badenoch. Soon Farage could be the favourite to be the next PM

It is quite something that a party with a mere five MPs and their leader soon could be favourite to be the next Prime Minister. My view is Farage is a lay in this market because if it looks like Labour are going to be eclipsed by Reform (and potentially the Tories) then Labour will look at replacing Starmer before the next election (or Starmer voluntarily stands down.) So the value might be with the likes of Wes Streeting and…

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Like Thatcher in her first term Starmer finds himself third in the polls

Like Thatcher in her first term Starmer finds himself third in the polls

The one thing I find amusing is that people on social media and elsewhere are stridently predicting the outcome of the next general election some four and a half years away. Governments that become rather unpopular in the early part of the parliament can go on and win the general election, as I allude to in the headline Thatcher’s first term saw her party slip to third place in the polls in her first term then won a landslide at…

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