politicalbetting.com

With the bettinggate story getting worse the snippet highlighted in that story has real betting implications. Over on Betfair Labour, at 1.52, are the favourites to win RIchmond & Northallerton whilst with Ladbrokes they are 2/1. Last night I said the polls this close out were pointing to a truly crushing defeat, Sunak losing his seat would confirm that. The sad thing for the Tories are that these are such avoidable mistakes who could have predicted using insider information would…

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Whilst election day is twelve days away what often isn’t appreciated enough that right now millions of voters are submitting their postal and proxy votes and if the polls right now are correct then the shellacking the Tories are about to receive will be comparable to 1931 in reverse. A fun betting market would be will the number of Labour MPs elected next month will be closer to 500 than 400. TSE

No, that headline isn’t a typo but based on this YouGov poll of undecided voters conducted for The Times. For the last couple of weeks Tories from the Prime Minister downwards have been banging on about the dangers of supermajority and we can see it has some movement with undecided voters. These are the voters that will determine with the Tories have an extinction level extent or a recoverable defeat, one of things that really damaged the Tories in 1997…

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That most heard finding isn’t surprising to me, my mother told me a joke from her ladies who lunch WhatsApp group. Rishi Sunak expected one of his aides to bring out an umbrella when he was announcing the date of the election in the rain but all his aides were too busy placing bets on the date of the election. After the election it wouldn’t surprise me that the two most heard stories about the election will be the political…

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TSE

Longstanding readers of PB know I have always been an advocate of electoral reform which made me a rarity in the Tory Party however it appears more and more Tories are joining me a the scale of the shellacking on July the 4th is becoming clearer. The reason I favour electoral reform is that First Past The Post (FPTP) leads to real inequities such as 1983 when the Alliance polled over the quarter of the vote but end up with…

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Given the sums matched I cannot get that outraged and because I tipped a July election at 20s back in March but those of who operate to a higher standard this is utterly reprehensible behaviour by various Tories. I suspect it fits in the belief that the Tories are sleazy and reminds the voters of things like the PPE scandals. Occasionally I receive embargoed polls and I would never bet based on those polls until they became publicly available. Caesar’s…

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The Tories are losing the next election that is as certain as water being wet or the SNP arguing any day that ends with a ‘y’ is a mandate for Scottish independence but what remains uncertain (and makes this election so exciting) is the scale of the Tory defeat with anything from a 1997 style result to a 1931 in reverse result. Based on the Tweets atop this thread are in for a pounding of which there is no suitable…

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