Based on comments by some on PB, the media, and indeed some fatalism within the Labour Party the outcome of the next election is already inevitable. I am reminded that at the end of May 2021 Labour were an implied 8.3% chance of winning a majority at the next general election, spoiler alert: Sir Keir Starmer won the next general election with a 174 seat majority, a lot of that was down to the Tories but it is a reminder…
As a good Muslim I have no theories why people vote based on alcoholic drink preference. TSE
I suspect Bibi’s legacy will not improve after the attack on Iran inside or outside Israel. TSE
I am liking this new professionalism from Reform appointing serious people for serious times, long may it continue. TSE
Such a rapid turnover in leaders often indicates a much wider malaise If these rebels are successful then the SNP will have had four First Ministers during this Holyrood term which is more Prime Ministers the Tories had during the 2019 to 2024 Westminster Parliament. When you go through this many leaders in this short a period it damages your credibility with the voters. I cannot see any betting markets related to this but I wouldn’t be surprised to see…
My view is that the economy is what primarily decides general elections and the first finding from More in Common shows where Reform’s economic polices that would make Liz Truss blush are seen a risk. The voters will find with a Reform government the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed. However the good news for Reform is after the disaster that was Liz Truss and the inutility of Rachel Reeves means the risks about a Reform government might be negated,…
I am not sure this polling matters, I remember the Labour Party very divided in the run up to the 2017 general election and whilst Jeremy Corbyn still lost the election finishing 64 seats of a majority he could have become Prime Minister if the seat distribution had been slightly different. TSE
If you are a believer in the mantra that is ‘the trend is your friend’ then Irish unity feels inevitable but I cannot spot any value in the markets offered by Ladbrokes. My own hunch is the 7% who favour Northern Irish independence would overwhelmingly back reunification in any actual plebiscite. TSE