politicalbetting.com

The two phone pollsters Ipsos and Survation give largely the same results which are inline with the shellacking the online pollsters indicate. The Ipsos satisfaction ratings show the pickle Sunak and the Tories are in and given that Ipsos have been polling for nearly fifty years so allows to put the current numbers into context. The worry for Starmer and Labour is that historically his ratings are quite poor and like Boris Johnson he’s only winning mostly because his opponents…

Read More Read More

The Press Association have published their expected declaration times which is useful if you’re not planning to stay up all night long. The early results may give us indication if the MRPs are right and which one is looking to be the gold standard of MRPs. Five out of the first eight seats expected to declare are in the North East of England plus Basildon & Billericay and they be a very good indicator if Reform are surging to a…

Read More Read More

Longstanding readers of PB know I am not a fan of constituency polls because it is very hard to get a representative sample and in 2015, outside of Scotland, the constituency polls were as accurate as an American war movie. I am surprised by this polling as I expected Corbyn to win, he’s been the MP for the area for 41 years and there is anecdotal stories that some people in the constituency think he is still the Labour candidate…

Read More Read More

Many of us have been pointing out for a while that under SIr Keir Starmer Labour’s vote efficiency is improving to truly impressive levels but there is a potential downside as highlighted in the second tweet. Once the results come through on July the 5th and the results show a massive Labour majority in terms of seats but on very small majorities in terms of votes that could see what I discussed yesterday about Starmer winning a massive majority which…

Read More Read More

I like looking at the gender splits in voting intentions because sometimes they give an insight that allows you to make a decent profit on the betting markets. In the run up to the Scottish independence referendum Alex Salmond and Scottish independence whilst popular in absolute terms there was often a gender gap which saw men more supportive of Salmond and Scottish independence whereas women weren’t. There are other examples which some have put down to women being more cautious…

Read More Read More

Think of Scotland, and places like Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk or East Renfrewshire which have swung massively from LD to SNP then SNP to Con all in the space of a few years or East Renfrewshire which has got Lab to SNP then SNP to Con then back to SNP. The Red Wall is likely to see the swings of 2019 reversed on a grand scale. With an uncertain world things can become worse if the appeasers/Russian shills sell out Ukraine I can…

Read More Read More

Mark Pack has analysed how many timesthe Tories have polled less than 20% per calendar year. One caveat is that we now have many more polls than before except during the 2010-15 parliament where the daily YouGov skewed things but the chart is very grim for the Blue Team. The last time the Tories were removed from office sub 20% polls were rare and that’s when a lot of pollsters have issues get representative samples which ended up being favourable…

Read More Read More

I think Lord Mandelson isn’t being very subtle here. The last thing Labour needs is the voters thinking the election landslide is in the bag and decide they don’t have to vote or that they are safe to vote Lib Dem/Reform/SNP/Greens etc without risking the Labour landslide. My advice to Labour is to not panic if the polls tighten over the next 10 days as it might get those thinking for other parties to back Labour as the overwhelming narrative…

Read More Read More