politicalbetting.com

TSE

TSE

TSE

I am quite surprised by the Reform seats but I did advise buying them on the spreads when they were 4 due the small downside. The Tories are pummelled but not wiped out to an extinction level event. Did the supermajority talk work? TSE

As we wait for the exit poll here’s some fun polling which is cat-astrophe for dogsatpollingstations. Here’s the latest betting from Betfair, what will it look like at 10.01pm? TSE

Writing a piece about why lawyers are awesome is a piece of epic tautology but it does have important betting related implications both today and in the future. Ever since Germany surrendered in World War II every time at a UK general election when Labour or the Tories have been led by a lawyer facing a non lawyer as their opponent the lawyer has always won except when both parties were led by lawyers, further proof that Shakespeare was wrong…

Read More Read More

This general election has thrown up things that I never expected to write. On election day I wasn’t expecting to write about Labour polling below the 36.1% David Cameron’s Tories received in 2010 but this is now a real possibility as this Ipsos poll isn’t an outlier. If Rishi Sunak hadn’t run a terrible campaign we might have actually had a hung parliament. But the share of the vote doesn’t really matter, it’s all about net gains and bums on…

Read More Read More

If the polls are wrong I suspect this will be one of the main reasons, turnout will not match what the voters tell the pollsters on their propensity to vote. Differential turnout could be the difference between an extinction level event for the Tories and a 1997 redux. TSE