When will the Aberdeenshire hotelier’s second term end? The last few days the internet became very excited about Donald Trump absence and health. I am not reading too much into this, for example speculating on someone’s health based on an enhanced photo is like relying on a Scottish subsample, it is inherently unreliable. There are plenty of markets on when Trump’s second term will end/will he complete a full term, these are markets I am avoiding because I think it…
During Iain Duncan Smith’s tenure as Tory leader the BBC pointed out the inaccuracies in his curriculum vitae was inaccurate and it helped damage him and on a cumulative basis helped end his leadership. Like Rachel Reeves and her CV issues I don’t think this will be a career ender on its own but other issues will. Any Tory MP looking to oust Kemi Badenoch have more ammunition. My expectation for exit being in 2026 hasn’t changed because of this…
My expectation for 16 and 17 year olds will be much lower than the rest of the electorate but if this polling is close to the actual result at the next election then this is good news for Reform as Labour’s lead over Reform becomes a rounding error. As I predicted the party most damaged by this new party is the Greens. I suspect a lot of attention will be drawn to Nigel Farage having better ratings than Sir Keir…
Looking at this list from Ladbrokes I think Corbyn has a more plausible route to become mayor that people who according to Ladbrokes have a better chance of winning than Corbyn. I can see Corbyn’s brand of politics appealing to London in 2028 so at 25/1 I feel a trading bet is in order but I understand why punters might want to swerve this bet. TSE Update – PBer NigelB suggested this tip yesterday too.
Nigel Farage has gone out of his way to avoid associating with members of the BNP and Tommy Robinson because the polling in the past has shown those two have toxic ratings and this More In Common poll shows the risks of the Tories and Reform making Lucy Connolly a martyr. If Labour are to win the next election they are going to win the next election they are likely to need centre left voters to tactically vote for them…
Given Labour’s current polling figures I cannot see why Labour, with a majority north of 150, would want to call an election this year or next year, I expect Starmer and Labour to go long and hold the election in 2029. If Labour/Starmer call an election this year or next year it would be the greatest self inflicted wound a political party has experienced since the Tories made Liz Truss Prime Minister. Backing 2025 or 2026 do not appeal even…
I wonder if this will make Farage reluctant to announce detailed policies before the election. TSE
Several years ago I had a chat with somebody from the world of politics and their sage advice was to me is that political obsessives massively overestimate the interest the general public take in politics which is why stories that we think should shift perceptions and voting intentions often don’t. Most of the public know who the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition, and Chancellor of the Exchequer are, they don’t care who the Chancellor of the Duchy of…