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Whilst it is only Tory members who have the final say in the Tory leadership it might be polling like this that influences Tory members with James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat being more popular than the rest of the field. Cleverly ticks quite a few boxes, Lt. Colonel Cleverly will get the blue rinse weak at the knees as they love a soldier, he backed Brexit, and because (in)competency was a major reason the Tories lost the election, Cleverly has…

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Apart from the fans of Liz Truss (all three of them) the legacy forever associated with her premiership is crashing the economy. TSE

This analysis is essential for those betting on the presidential election, it underpins why the election is effectively a toss up and why right now Harris remains value. TSE

My expectation is that Harris will receive another boost in the polls after she picks her running mate and from the convention which will make anyone who didn’t jump on Kamala Harris odds at the start of last month feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles when Robert tipped her to win. Her chances of winning the election was as low as 3.2% this time last month. August is looking the month of crossover on the major political betting markets….

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As I predicted earlier on this week Robert Jenrick has overtaken Kemi Badenoch as the favourite in the next Tory market. I expect the final two to be Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. I’ve said (and bet accordingly) that Badenoch is overrated & far too belligerent and is so far proving it. I don’t think the Guardian stories have damaged her that much but it hasn’t helped. I now think this election is the Cambridge educated lawyer’s election to lose. TSE

I think one of the things that hasn’t been discussed enough that in the June debate that ended Joe Biden’s re-election is that Donald Trump had a shocker as well but in comparison to Biden he wasn’t bad. So long as Harris maintains competence and assurance this may soon well be her election to lose as she compares favourably to Trump’s droolings. Yesterday was so bad even even Fox News couldn’t polish that turd. I think we could see crossover…

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The stand out for me, as it is at every election, election results and indeed the country would be very different if younger voters actually voted. With the turnout propensity of the elderly, taking away their goodies might be an issue for Starmer. TSE

A friend who takes a keen interest in politics on both sides of the pond and whose opinions I respect told me last night I was wrong when I was saying Donald Trump should still be the narrow favourite to win the presidential election, so yes Harris really is value on Betfair. They said the polls are now showing what the polls were saying for the last couple of years, the Americans wanted an election where Trump and Biden weren’t…

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