This feels like an outlier from the Iowa gold standard pollster In 2020 Donald Trump won Iowa by over 8% so a poll showing him losing the state by 3% by the respected Ann Selzer is quite sensational, as we can see in the above tweets the track record of this pollster is near flawless. If this poll is accurate it would pressage a Harris landslide which the wider polls haven’t picked up on. Emerson which is generally rated as…
Before the secret rule change I said whoever won today would be unlikely to be the Tory leader at the next election and I am still sticking to that viewpoint, 79 Tory MPs which is nearly two thirds of the parliamentary party didn’t vote for Badenoch. The Tory party faces an existential crisis as it could be pincered senseless by Reform and the Lib Dems over the next few years and I am not sure Badenoch has the skillset to…
At least Rishi Sunak can say that his last full day as Tory leader saw the Tories ahead. Before anyone gets too excited by this poll yesterday also saw a poll by Techne with a Labour lead of 7% and even Ed Miliband led in the polls four months after the 2010 election. TSE
I suspect the real winner tomorrow will be Sir Keir Starmer. If I was Kemi Badenoch I would be reevaluate my life choices, it is some achievement to have worse (net) unfavourable than Robert Jenrick. TSE
If Kamala Harris does win the election next week my expectation is that it will be women voters and a wider more enthused coalition that will power her to victory. With abortion being an important factor in this election it might explain why so many women think the self confessed pussy grabber doesn’t respect women. TSE
Voting closed at 5pm in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak and Robert Jenrick’s chances are near rock bottom (but he has been lower before) but I do think he remains a smidgen of value given the last YouGov poll had him losing to Badenoch by a mere 4%. The result will be announced at 11am on Saturday morning. TSE
With the White House race essentially being a coin toss the Betfair market appears to disagree but given the the news coming out regarding Polymarket raises eyebrows. I suspect there are sufficient safeguards in place to stop market manipulation on Betfair and with over £116 million matched on this Betfair market it seems a poor use of resources to waste money on the betting markets rather than spend the money in key battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. Perhaps one…
The early narrative about this budget could be sub-optimal for Labour. TSE