politicalbetting.com

Picture – Matthaeus Loder – The Card Layer – Germanisches Nationalmuseum, Nuremberg Last year’s PB Predictions Competition proved to be somewhat like Winston Churchill: popular but very difficult.  In true Churchillian ‘never-say-die’ spirit we thought you might like to come back for more punishment. To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025.  If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me to collate…

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Given the dark history of the Royal Family when it comes to coups (King Edward VIII would have been installed as King if the Nazis had invaded and Lord Mountbatten (the current King’s mentor) was touted to become PM if a coup against Harold Wilson succeeded, or Queen Elizabeth II’s disgraceful role in the sacking of Gough Whitlam I can understand why Elon Musk has tweeted this. I do not expect King Charles III to heed Elon Musk’s advice as…

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This poll hasn’t altered my view that laying Kamala Harris for both the Dem nomination and the presidency in 2028 is the way to profit. I think the ratings for the likes of Newsom, Shapiro, and Whitmer will improve the further we get into the primary contests, they make for great trading bets at the moment. TSE

From a political betting perspective 2024 was an epic year, a UK general election, a US presidential election with the incumbent quitting the race in July, a Tory leadership contest, a French legislative election, and the betting on the date of the UK general election which has gotten some people in real trouble. Regretfully 2025 is going to be a fallow year for election betting as the only major bettable* elections are in Germany, Canada, Ireland, and Australia, the latter…

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Best Prime Minister polling is something that has a strong incumbency bias and it is only worth noting when the leader of the opposition starts winning this metric consistently as it usually heralds a change of government What is truly intriguing about this polling is that Nigel Farage leads Kemi Badenoch on this metric which will help Farage as he is trying to set up the next general election as a straight fight between Labour and Reform which would see…

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Yesterday saw the Reform Party claim they had overtaken the Conservative Party’s membership total although Kemi Badenoch has accused Reform of manipulating their figures in a lengthy thread on the social media plaform formerly known as Twitter. As the Tweet by Ben Harris points out there’s no automatcity that having more members leads to electoral victory, just ask Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and 2019, or the SNP earlier on this year when they were reduced to a single digit number…

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Happy Christmas everybody. TSE

This chart in the FT shows how badly Labour have started, with business confidence in Labour falling like Hans Gruber from Nakatomi Plaza. The only positive for Labour is that they have a long time to turn things around but a Labour government being bad for the economy as a once in a century pandemic is not the narrative Starmer and Labour wanted. TSE