In the last fifteen months or so backing Ed Miliband at long odds has proven to be very profitable but I am not sure backing Ed Miliband at 33/1 as next Chancellor will be similarly profitable. My logic is underpinned by the fact Sir Keir Starmer & Labour have made much about Rachel Reeves being the first female Chancellor if Starmer does replace her then I suspect her replacement will be a woman which rules out Ed Miliband. However if…
TSE
Speaking to a former Labour SPAD earlier on this month they said to me every time a former Tory MP defects to Reform it increases the chances of Labour retaining power at the next election. Reform’s schtick is that it is the brand new thing to overturn the uniparty orthodoxy but the more they look like a retirement home for failed Tories then that message becomes less effective. Marco Longhi would like you to forget he was a Tory MP…
TSE
TSE
Yesterday saw a YouGov poll published a Wales only poll which is utterly staggering, we should be prepared for the possibility of one of the Conservatives or Labour could finish fifth or lower in next year’s Senedd election, it would make a mockery of Kemi Badenoch’s improved ratings. Given Labour’s historic strength in Wales I am not sure there are the words to describe if that result became a reality. There’s very few betting markets on next year’s Senedd elections…
Little by little Brexit is being undone. TSE
Every passing day confirms that Kamala Harris would have been a better president than Donald Trump but that doesn’t mean she should try and run in 2028. In many ways she was a poor candidate which I expect will be exposed in the primaries in 2028. You can back Kamala Harris at 40/1 on Ladbrokes to be the next president and at 15.5 on Betifair to be the nominee, neither of those feel attractive even as trading bets, perhaps the…