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Here are just two which don’t convince me. Kemi Badenoch vows to repeal Climate Change Act – Tory leader says she would replace it with ‘cheap energy’ strategy, ending decades-long consensus on climate. Living Standards were poor in the 50’s 60’s and 70’s UK, and it wasn’t the Welfare State that eventually raised them, but the North Sea. There must be huge temptation to, as Climate Change denier Trump puts it, drill baby drill, gas, oil, coal – to boost…

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Last week YouGov released the latest iteration of their MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) survey. For anyone not aware, this is a survey combining data from 13,000 voters and demographic data to predict all the seats in Great Britain (except for the Speaker’s seat of Chorley). YouGov have had splendid success with their MRP and correctly called 92% of seats at the 2024 election (also helping my betting returns). That said, we should point out a couple of caveats as…

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Hitting rock bottom The Conservative party is the oldest and most successful party in UK history. The 2024 election was the worst ever in its long history (the previous worst in 1906, they still held on to 156 seats) In theory, the Conservatives are still well placed as there are 227 seats, where the required swing is less than 10%.  However, it’s not proving remotely easy so far. With Labour seeing their popularity dwindle, the Conservatives ought to be the…

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This is the penultimate in a series looking at the 7 main Great Britain parties. The main focus will be on the Green Party of England and Wales, but we’ll also look at the separate Scottish Greens. Let me start with a question. Since 2010, the Green Party of England and Wales has had 7 leaders or co-leaders, how many can you name? Vote share The main challenge for the Green Party in England and Wales is simple: national vote…

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In two significant ways, Reform UK supporters, and that subset which knows how to hold a writing implement and thus become Reform UK voters, are like senior military officers. First, they only want to hear things that they already know to be true. Second, they assume that anything they don’t personally understand must be simple. Immigration, and particularly informal migration via channel crossings in small boats, has been successfully weaponised to such a degree that it is now perceived as…

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Later tonight the studio lights at the Antenna Media Centre in Nottingham will be switched off. They will not be turned on again. Today marks the last day of broadcasting by Notts TV, part of a pioneering experiment in hyper-local TV services first launched by Jeremy Hunt under the Coalition government. The channel, which broadcasts a small number of hours of local news, sport, culture and current affairs debates per week, is available on Freeview channel 7 (the old BBC…

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We have a new set of proposals for changes to UK motoring law in the press yesterday, prominently around eyesight for the elderly, and a slightly lower drink driving limit. It is actually more comprehensive than that, and is being framed by the Government as a “Road Safety Strategy”. This piece is some initial reflections – a “quick take”, so not as heavily referenced as I would like. The Starmer Government have been talking about different issues in a piecemeal…

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This is the 5th in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties. Today we will look at the Scottish National Party. Feast or famine Unlike Plaid Cymru, the SNP have a more consistent level of support across Scotland. In 2025, this ranged from 17% in Edinburgh South to 40% in Angus and Perthshire Glens. This means the SNP are often in a feast or famine situation. 30% of the vote in 2024…

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