politicalbetting.com

With UK government borrowing at an estimated £120 billion a year it is clear that tax-and-spend will no longer work in terms of investing in order to generate growth. The Covid pandemic saw governments across the globe borrow through Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to finance the extraordinary situation. The UK government borrowed some £400 billion in order to get through the crisis mostly via QE. Very little of that money was invested for the long-term. Most went on furlough…

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Tuesday 11th13:20 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle WINNER Kopek Des Bordes14:00 Arkle Novices’ Chase WINNER Touch Me Not ?14:40 The Ultima Handicap Chase WINNER Whistle Stop Tour ?15:20 The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle Race WINNER Lossiemouth NAP16:00 The Unibet Champion Hurdle WINNER Brighterdaysahead16:40 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race WINNER Stencil17:20 The National Hunt Novices’ Chase WINNER Gericault Roque ? Wednesday 12th13:20 The Turners Novices’ Hurdle Race WINNER Final Demand14:00 The Brown Advisory Novices’ Steeple Chase WINNER Ballyburn NAP14:40 The Coral…

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We are only seven weeks into Donald Trump’s second term of office. It is difficult to grasp that small handful of a figure given the torrent of executive orders, firings, reorganizations, torn international treaties and social media mayhem. For those with the stomach to try and follow the day-to-day progress of Trump 2.0, it is head spinning and nauseating work. Most people’s outrage processing neural engines are screeching with overload. Where do you start? Bonkers on/off tariffs that seem likely…

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The international chaos of the that past week has naturally dominated both the world news and politicalbetting.com, but let us not forget that there are other important matters to discuss… For example, we have our first answer to one of the 2025 Prediction Competition questions: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. The answer was 152 of course – AfD easily out-performed our PB mean prediction of 136 seats. And the winners,…

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A recently announced ceasefire has brought a (temporary) end to what has been dubbed the Gaza war. I would argue that this is just the latest chapter in a war that has now raged for 75 years on and off. Timeline of key events 1917 – Balfour declaration supports the establishment of a homeland for the Jews 1948 – Creation of Israel and the first Arab-Israeli War 1967 – Six-Day War 1973 – Yom Kippur War 1978 – First Israeli…

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With just 5 MPs elected in 2024, it’s impossible for Reform to win the next election. So we are told. We can list multiple events which were politically impossible which then happened anyway. In today’s politics, the impossible is the future possible. Reform UK have transformed themselves – from UKIP to the Brexit Party to Reform UK Ltd, and now to a non-profit owned by its growing number of members. It is led by a Teflon-coated populist who so many…

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We all remember OGH’s 50/1 bet on Obama. Well, I’ve got another for you! 50/1 on Mark Carney to be next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Oh… sorry, no, the bookies are offering 1/50 on Carney. Bet £50 and win £1 if he is elected. Is he really such a foregone conclusion? I’ve not seen any polling of party members, but the last two polls of Liberal voters had him 54pp and 40pp up against Chrystia Freeland, his…

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For those curious about the PB Prediction Competition, the full list of entries can be found in this spreadsheet.   PB Prediction Competition 2025 – Entries Most of the questions won’t be settled until the end of the year, although we do have one which should be answered very soon:  Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200,…

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