The charts are getting redder. No one is giving the Electoral College to Harris now, the best forecasts are unclear results from Nate Silver and electoral-vote, with differing states tied in their models. And in the national polling, the movement is in Trump’s direction, even if Harris is leading slightly. The Senate picture is different (a little, not a lot) – after years of being told by pundits that split ticket voting was a thing of the past, it looks…
This comparison will offend some of you, sorry. Also, if you are a supporter of either Trump or Hamas, maybe skip reading this. Most sensible people are both anti-Trump and anti-Hamas. But here’s the rub: I’d wager that many people who will put a cross next to Trump on November 5th are also anti-Trump, and many Palestinians that tolerate Hamas’ leadership are anti-Hamas. It’s just that, in both cases, the people in question cannot see a better option than to…
I could almost have sympathy for Rachel Reeves. The much hyped October budget approaches and whatever she does she will have the sound of wailing and the gnashing of teeth. It has been her misfortune to hang her hat on the OBR and thereby leave a vacuum on what she will do. Politics like nature hates a vacuum and in the self imposed silence all manner of conjecture has been given ample room to feed rumours and speculate on Armageddon. …
The year 2000 is perhaps best remembered in the UK for the Millenium Dome, the fuel protests and Y2K. For the US, it would be their first presidential election of a new millennium. Incumbent Bill Clinton was term limited after winning in 1992 and 1996, meaning there would be a new President For the Democrats, Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee won fairly comfortably against a challenge from Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey For the Republicans, Governor George W…
Not much movement, and yet lots of movement (for some).The national polling gap continues to narrow slightly, fairly uniformly (we’ll get to Princeton). And yet… Harris’s vote share is actually increasing, just slightly slower than Trump’s. It would seem that both sides’ voters are firming up their views. Harris may be happy to have a lead, Trump may be happy the lead might not be enough for Harris to overcome the disadvantage the Dems have in the Electoral College. Princeton…
I read a truly awful book the other day. JJ Bola’s (apologies if you’re a reader of PB) Mask Off: Masculinity Redefined can be perfectly summed up by a translation of its German title: Don’t be a man: Why masculinity is a nightmare for boys. The idea that the solution to toxic masculinity is to implore boys not to be men is, to put it mildly, self-defeating. I’m not trying to deny that we have a problem with masculinity. Feminists…
You could change ‘state’ to ‘stasis’ in the title, and you wouldn’t be far wrong: hardly any movement since last week, which is exactly how I started off last week’s comments. So, what movement has there been? In national polling, Harris has a slight edge, but there’s been a small shift towards Trump. Harris is clearly favourite to win the popular vote, but that of course isn’t what counts.In the Electoral College, 538 has moved North Carolina from Trump to…
Picture: Wikimedia Commons Rosie Duffield’s resignation from Labour raises the prospect of an independent, ex-Labour left-wing grouping in Parliament and perhaps even in elections. Rosie (pictured) joins Jeremy Corbyn, who of course was re-elected in the general election as an independent. And seven former Labour MPs lost the whip after voting against the two-child cap in universal credit, so there are currently nine ex-Labour MPs in the Commons. To regain the whip, the seven MPs would need to vote loyally…