Browsed by
Author: Editor

Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

Comments 0 Comment

What are the lessons from Irish History? With Alec Salmond’s stunning victory in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, and the disarray among the Unionist parties, is independence now inevitable, or can the Union be saved? There are two main take-aways from the Irish Home Rule saga, both which have huge relevance today. 1) When the Home Rule movement began in the 1870s only a minority of Irish Radicals wanted independence. Most voters cared more about the injustices of Anglo-Irish rule: economic…

Read More Read More

A YES campaigner asks: “Where did it all go wrong”?

A YES campaigner asks: “Where did it all go wrong”?

Comments 0 Comment

A PB guest slot by Gavin Baylis Some early polls showed the Yes campaign leading in the alternative vote (AV) referendum; but the final polls suggest an overwhelming defeat. So where did it all go wrong? Firstly, undecided voters tend to back the status quo in the final stages of the campaign. In the US, pollsters find there are many ‘don’t knows’ as well as supporters and opponents of an incumbent. Pollsters argue that in early polls, what matters is…

Read More Read More

Canada kicks off the busy election week

Canada kicks off the busy election week

Comments 0 Comment

Globe & Mail After Fianna Fáil and the True Finns, another mould-breaker? Despite the death of Bin Laden (and what will the impact of that be for US 2012?), normal democratic politics continues. It seems that many recent elections have deserved the “historic” tag – Ireland and Finland this year, plus a clutch in 2010 including the UK, Australia and the US Midterms. Could today’s election in Canada be about to join the list of mouldbreakers? At the start of…

Read More Read More

A guest slot from Tim with advice to the PM

A guest slot from Tim with advice to the PM

Comments 0 Comment

Dave, stop trying to curb your Etonianism dear, it doesn’t wash The recent kerfuffle over the PM’s “Calm down, dear” comments seems to me to have to have rather missed the point. Cameron exposed a weakness at PMQ’s, but it wasn’t a weakness for rather camp Michael Winner impressions, it was a failure to control himself when he’s not on top of his brief . A trait that is particularly obvious when he’s discussing the NHS. This is something that…

Read More Read More

Be careful what you wish for – AV through the looking-glass

Be careful what you wish for – AV through the looking-glass

Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot by Rod Crosby Amid the knockabout fun of the AV referendum campaign I’ve noted little serious analysis of where we currently stand under FPTP, and where we might end up, depending on the outcome on 5th May. The Reactionaries among us, nominally Conservatives, simply view AV as the work of the Devil, and seem incapable of offering any reasoned argument for its rejection – nor, just as importantly, for the retention of FPTP. But is the Alternative…

Read More Read More

Jonathan on five targets for Labour

Jonathan on five targets for Labour

Comments 0 Comment

And Easter greetings from Marf May’s elections are important. Not only will they decide who controls millions of pounds, they will set the tone of politics and party morale for the year ahead. They are the first real indication of how votes stack up in the Coalition era. And outside the English cities, they will establish the activist base on which the parties will fight the next general election. The elections are most important for Labour. Out of office, the…

Read More Read More

NO campaign moves into commanding lead

NO campaign moves into commanding lead

Comments 0 Comment

Have ICM cracked the turnout question? Julian Glover has just tweeted that the new ICM/Guardian poll has (unadjusted) No 44%, Yes 33%, DK 23%, giving an (adjusted) lead of NO 58% vs YES 42%. This is a massive shift in the polling numbers from the pollster that many (including OGH Mike Smithson) regard as a gold-standard pollster. The Guardian write-up can be found here: key features are that the December ICM/Guardian poll had YES 6-points ahead, before NO drew level…

Read More Read More

Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

Comments 0 Comment

Who’s going to get moved and when? Next month we’re likely to have the Coalition’s first reshuffle. Whatever happens, the Coalition will break new ground. David Cameron will have to walk a tightrope between the two parties. Can he refresh his tired team and maintain the Coalition’s equilibrium. Here are six candidates who might move: Cable, Hague, Clegg, Laws, Spelman and Lansley. All have had an “interesting” year. How many could be in a new job by the recess? How…

Read More Read More