?NEW London Mayoral Voting Intention for @centreforlondon

?24pt Sadiq Khan lead

?Lab 51 (+11)
?Con 27 (-8)
?LD 10 (+6)
?Green 8 (=)
??Reform 2 (NEW)
??Other 3 (-10)

1,510 Londoners, 8-12 March

(chg vs 2021 result (1st prefs)) pic.twitter.com/reE8S3W6qS

— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) March 22, 2024

First thing is that it's absolutely true that the national polling picture now compared to the last London Mayoral election is chalk and cheese. @Savanta_UK's UK poll immediately after the 2021 Mayoral election had Con 42, Lab 34.

Our most recent poll had Lab 44, Con 26.

— Chris Hopkins (@ChrisHopkins92) March 22, 2024

All things pointing in Khan's favour then.

But in 2021, all opinion polls whether from ourselves, YouGov or Opinium understated the Conservative vote share. The Labour share in polling was more accurate, but had an element of being overstated.

— Chris Hopkins (@ChrisHopkins92) March 22, 2024

We also don't know how FPTP will affect things. Or Voter ID.

FWIW, the slides @georgeeaton shared about VID negatively impacting Khan by 5pts seems, as @OwenWntr pointed out, pretty wild to me.

But if these things do negatively affect any candidate, it will be Khan, not Hall.

— Chris Hopkins (@ChrisHopkins92) March 22, 2024

One of the main criticisms of Khan in office has been his successes, however great the achievements are, are in areas of lower importance to Londoners.

The top 3 areas he's performed well in are making London diverse, protecting green spaces, and managing transport.

— Chris Hopkins (@ChrisHopkins92) March 22, 2024

the other thing I TOTALLY FORGOT to mention is that we're really, really pleased to be working with @centreforlondon and their excellent team of researchers on this new series that will extend well beyond the May election.

— Chris Hopkins (@ChrisHopkins92) March 22, 2024