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Month: June 2015

The most important result on May 7th

The most important result on May 7th

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Why David Cameron might be grateful to Mark Reckless defecting Whilst it might be accurate to say every constituency result on May the 7th was important, the result in Rochester & Strood might be the one that has most impact in this parliament. Anything that helps, to borrow LBJ’s maxim, about keeping the Eurosceptics inside the tent pissing out, rather than outside pissing in, is good for the Tories, Cameron and the continued life of this government. Given the way the…

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Latest on the Labour leadership race

Latest on the Labour leadership race

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We may soon see crossover between Burnham & Cooper Betfair exchange trend chart showing Burnham's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/2JtiIAkO2k — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Betfair exchange trend chart showing Cooper's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/HP7A9FuY7i — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Implied percentages from the Betfair odds for winning the Labour leadership just now are 39.37% for Burnham and 36.23% for Cooper. This may just be political gravity bringing the odds back down to a more…

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Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

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There is a risk of Labour overcompensating for not removing Brown & Miliband. During Wednesday’s debate, Andy Burnham and the other contenders admitted they would stand down as leader if they were a hindrance to Labour winning in 2020, the fact we’re having this debate is down to Labour realising they may have done better at the 2010 and 2015 elections if they had taken the opportunities to remove Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. Any mistake or poor polling will…

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David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

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YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Left wing contenders were overstated, those of the right understated Judging by what some LAB members have been Tweeting it looks as though, maybe even tonight, we’ll see the first poll, from YouGov,…

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GrEUxit?

GrEUxit?

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Greece’s brinkmanship is risking its membership of the EU Quite why the received wisdom has taken root that should the Greek government default on its debts then it follows that Greece will leave the Eurozone is something of a mystery. Logically, the two do not follow at all. Several cities and even states in the US have defaulted without leaving the Dollar zone and while Greece is a semi-sovereign country rather than a province in a federation, which makes a…

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Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015

Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015

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North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour: Donald Barr 143, Gareth Walls 132 Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes 793 , Nick Geary 775 United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey 315, Janet Hatton 288 Two Conservative HOLDS Holmwoods on Mole Valley (Deferred Election, One Liberal Democrat Defence from 2011, one UKIP defence from 2014) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: James Baird 492, Emma Whittinger 458 United Kingdom Independence Party: Michael Foulston 201, Stephen Morgan…

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Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU

Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU

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75% would vote to remain to stay in the EU whilst 25% would vote to leave One of the reasons I like the Ipsos Mori polling on the EU, is that they’ve been polling on the topic for nearly forty years, they have another poll out today for the the Evening Standard. If the historic in-out referendum were to be staged now, 66 per cent say they would vote to remain members and 22  per cent would vote to quit. Excluding…

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Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yvette neck and neck

Keiran Pedley on the Ipsos Mori poll that puts Andy and Yvette neck and neck

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Why Yvette is the smart bet For obvious reasons there isn’t a lot of polling out there at the moment. This makes following the true state of the Labour leadership contest quite tricky. Fortunately, we had a poll yesterday from Ipsos Mori that looked at the Labour leadership among the general public and Labour voters. The tables are here. Let’s get the caveats out of the way first. Labour ‘voters’ are not necessarily representative of the membership that will actually…

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