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Month: June 2015

Local By-Election Preview: June 18th 2015

Local By-Election Preview: June 18th 2015

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North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result of last full election (2011): Conservatives 21, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 18) Result of ward at last full election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,136, 1,001 (75%) Labour: 381 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Labour: Donald Barr, Gareth Walls Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes, Nick Geary United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey, Janet Hatton It has often been said that the seaside resorts of Britain “have seen…

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Boris reminds us once again why the normal rules of politics don’t apply to him

Boris reminds us once again why the normal rules of politics don’t apply to him

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Last night it was reported Boris Johnson’s relationship with the capital’s black cab trade has become further troubled after the Sun and Daily Mail newspapers released a video showing the mayor of London on his bicycle telling a taxi driver “to f*ck off and die – and not in that order”. The exchange in Islington, north London, was caught on camera by a passerby. The driver, one of many black cab operators furious at the way Transport for London, overseen…

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Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections

Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections

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Thinking about last night’s debate, this market is hard to call, Jeremy Corbyn did well, and seemed to be the most authentic and had a passion that others seemed to lack. Yvette Cooper came off as the safety first candidate, whilst Andy Burnham had an annoying habit of talking over Laura Kuenessberg and the other candidates which did not look good. As Mike noted on twitter last night, Andy Burnham reminded us why in 2010 just 8.5% of Labour members…

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The Labour Deputy Leader race is a five horse race

The Labour Deputy Leader race is a five horse race

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Creasy, Bradshaw and Eagle join Flint & Watson on the ballot paper I wonder if the biggest effect of this will be a boost for Sadiq Khan, as all the main leader/deputy leader contenders being white, as the following twitter exchange featuring the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush shows. Labour's leadership candidates are all white – does that matter? http://t.co/pkBN2kw8G2 pic.twitter.com/BiKE36v64x — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) June 17, 2015 @robfordmancs Indeed. I think this may have turned the Mayoral race on its…

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George Osborne’s first PMQs is a reminder of how strong his leadership chances are

George Osborne’s first PMQs is a reminder of how strong his leadership chances are

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Knowing the date of the PM’s departure could be the key It’s a big day for George Osborne. Cameron is away so, as the First Secretary of State in the new Conservative Government, he will be taking PMQs for the very first time – a very clear statement of his position in the pecking order. Looking back he has a lot in common with James Callaghan in 1976. It was widely agreed that in the LAB contest of that year…

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Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with James Morris – EdM’s private pollster

Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with James Morris – EdM’s private pollster

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This week Polling Matters with Politicalbetting.com Keiran Pedley speaks to James Morris of GQR – Ed Miliband’s private pollster during the 2015 General Election and puts to him some questions raised by PBers. Topics covered include the following (and more): 1) How Labour’s internal polling differed from public polls? 2) What Labour’s polling did (and did not) tell the party and when? 3) Did Ed Miliband really think he was going to win? 4) Did Labour know Ed Balls was…

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Tuesday evening round up

Tuesday evening round up

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Donald Trump enters the race to be President. I’ll make a bold prediction now. Donald Trump will never be President of the United States of America Donald Trump enters the race to be President in 2016. http://t.co/hakRCMjDFh — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 16, 2015   Today’s essential must read. Conhome have published the inside story on how the Tories won the election, here is an excerpt. Having picked the seats and selected the candidates, the next step was to understand key voters in each constituency. Lynton…

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Ladbrokes Buzzword Bingo on tomorrow’s Labour leadership debate – while YouGov London Mayor poll will bring cheer to Dame Tessa Jowell

Ladbrokes Buzzword Bingo on tomorrow’s Labour leadership debate – while YouGov London Mayor poll will bring cheer to Dame Tessa Jowell

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Edstone at 2/1 is tempting At times it feels these types of markets exist purely to contribute to the Bookies’ Christmas bonus fund, but I quite like Edstone at 2/1 given the prominence it was given during the campaign and afterwards, you get the feeling at least one of the leadership contenders will mention it in tomorrow night’s BBC debate. The link to the Ladbrokes market is here. TSE London Mayor: @YouGov poll sees Jowell beat Goldsmith 57% to 43%,…

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