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Month: September 2012

14 Tory back-benchers are said to have filed written requests for a leadership contest to oust Cameron

14 Tory back-benchers are said to have filed written requests for a leadership contest to oust Cameron

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Could this be for real? According to the Steerpike blog at the Spectator formal efforts have started to try to oust David Cameron. He writes: “Mr Steerpike understands that only fourteen Tory MPs have written to Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbenchers 1922 committee, asking for a leadership contest to oust David Cameron. Although the names officially remain a secret, fourteen is the number that the PM’s enemies believe that they have secured so far..” Under the Tory leadership…

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Romney punters start to panic on Intrade. Now the Irish exchange is moving into line with Betfair and others

Romney punters start to panic on Intrade. Now the Irish exchange is moving into line with Betfair and others

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One of the betting oddities on the 2012 White House race has been why the Irish exchange, Intrade, has been so out of line with Betfair, other bookies and in the US the Iowa Electronic Markets – something that I looked at nearly a month ago in a piece for the Telegraph. The gaps have been so large that it’s been hard to explain why punters there have been ready to risk money at much poorer odds for Romney when…

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In spite of the polls the Boris for CON leader prices are far too tight

In spite of the polls the Boris for CON leader prices are far too tight

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Above are the lat4est prices from Betfair on the Tory leadership. For those not familiar with the betting exchange a price of 4.8 converts to 3.8/1 in the traditional way of looking at things. In percentage terms Boris has a 20.8% chance. I’m not tempted. There are so many hurdles ahead not the least the fact that he’s less than six months into his second term as London mayor and, of course, is not an MP. Even if he got…

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The move to Boris is very much a London and southern thing. He has no impact in the North and Scotland

The move to Boris is very much a London and southern thing. He has no impact in the North and Scotland

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Northern voters are less enamored with the Mayor The detail of YouGov’s poll for the Sun is on the previous thread. The big news is that with Boris rather than Dave named as Tory leader the blue team would be just 1% behind Labour rather than 8% when the current leaders are named. That’s certainly quite dramatic but from the poll detail, just out, it’s clear that this was a very regional thing. The chart above is taken from the…

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The Sun’s “Boris would add 6 percent” poll could further undermine David Cameron’s leadership

The Sun’s “Boris would add 6 percent” poll could further undermine David Cameron’s leadership

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The Sun Without Boris YouGov finds that it’s CON 31/LAB 42/LD 10%.With Boris as leader CON 37%/LAB 38%/LD 11% so almost all of LAB lead wiped out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2012 There are two big reasons why the Sun poll on the impact on voting figures of a Boris is significant:- It points to the extent that Britain’s biggest-selling paper is getting behind Boris in an effort to have him replace Cameron as Tory leader – something…

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Standby for “bombshell” poll on how the Tories would be doing with Boris as leader

Standby for “bombshell” poll on how the Tories would be doing with Boris as leader

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What would happen to the Tory vote if Boris replaced Cameron? Read the bombshell YouGov poll verdict in The Sun tomorrow. — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) September 11, 2012 Given the massive national attention that there was on Boris last night and the tone of the Tweet from the Sun it looks like we could be in for a dramatic poll showing how the Tories would be performing with Boris at the helm rather than Dave. I’ve been expecting such a…

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Andy Murray moves into contention for the Sports Personality of the Year election

Andy Murray moves into contention for the Sports Personality of the Year election

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If the betting is right this is now a 3 man race Following Andy Murray’s spectacular success in the US open overnight he’s moved sharply in the betting for December’s election for Sports Personality of the Year. the chart above shows the changes in the past 24 hours. Notice how Andy Murray was moving up sharply and then slipped back as the match became more of a struggle. If the Betfair markets have got this right this has become a…

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