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Month: July 2011

Will newspaper endorsements matter as much any more?

Will newspaper endorsements matter as much any more?

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The Sun – May 6th 2010 Henry G Manson ponders about the post-scandal media world On Sunday, Damian Thompson, Editor of the Telegraph Blogs launched a striking attack on David Cameron and the News International phonehacking affair. He concluded, “It will be difficult to vote Tory at the next election.” This caught me by surprise and set me thinking if it was at all conceivable that the Telegraph could actually withdraw its support for the Conservatives under David Cameron? What…

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What are the implications of the Greek bail-out?

What are the implications of the Greek bail-out?

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BBC news Will the parliamentary recess make this less of an issue? The big news this evening has been the agreement in Brussels of a bail-out deal try to solve the Greek crisis. For Britain a critical element will be the pressure this takes off UK banks who, after France and Germany, had the greatest exposure. On the political front ministers must be quite relieved that parliament won’t be sitting again until September. @MikeSmithsonPB

Can Dave now start to turn his ratings round?

Can Dave now start to turn his ratings round?

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Ipsos-MORI Will yesterday be seen as a turning point? The chart shows the recent trends in the MORI leadership satisfaction ratings and there’s little doubt that the PM has taken a hit as a result of the hacking scandal. The question now is whether this will be sustained and whether Cameron can reach satisfaction numbers that would point to the Tories winning a general election with an overall majority. As I keep on saying these findings historically are a much…

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Is Warsi set to be the next cabinet casualty?

Is Warsi set to be the next cabinet casualty?

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The money goes on the Tory chairman being axed There’s been a big betting move overnight with punters rushing to get on Baroness Warsi as the next cabinet minister to leave. Yesterday at 5.22pm I backed her at 16/1 with Ladbrokes who’ve now brought her price in to 5/1. PaddyPower, meanwhile have made her the 2/1 favourite with Cameron at 9/2 and the odds-on favourite of only a few weeks ago, Chris Huhne, out to 8/1. What’s driving this is…

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Diary date: Monday August 15th – 6.30pm

Diary date: Monday August 15th – 6.30pm

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Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. We are having an informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station in London. There’s no need to book but it does help if those who are coming can email Steve at Londonevent@politicalbetting.com It was a great gathering there in April before the elections – see you there next month Whatever your connection with PB…

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Has the Guardian lost its marbles over Marbles?

Has the Guardian lost its marbles over Marbles?

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Guardian Will this undermine efforts to occupy the moral high ground Just 24 hours after the attack on Ruperrt Murdoch while giving evidence to the commons committee the Guardian has given a platform to the man responsible, Jonnie Marbles He’s been given a column in which he seeks to justify why he did it. I think the Guardian’s move is dumb beyond belief – it looks as though it’s taking its campaign against News International and Murdoch just too far….

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Should Dave have made his Coulson concession a lot earlier?

Should Dave have made his Coulson concession a lot earlier?

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Why’s it taken so long for him to admit the mistake? For me the big element in today’s statement on the hacking scandal from David Cameron was his observation “with hindsight” that he would not have hired Andy Coulson. This comes after massive pressure over the past fortnight when he’s remained equivocal over the decision to hire the ex-NOTW editor in 2007 and then, in May 2010, to appoint him as head of communication at Number 10. Surely a lot…

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The Tories and Cameron drop to new lows with Ipsos-MORI

The Tories and Cameron drop to new lows with Ipsos-MORI

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And Ladbrokes now make Dave 4/1 to be next cabinet exit The third major telephone poll of the month, the July political monitor by Ipsos-MORI for Reuters, is being published this morning and looks set to have bad news for the blues. Although the actual figures are not yet available the above chart has been based on data from a Reuters news video which can be seen here. The Tory share of 32% is the lowest with the pollster since…

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