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Month: June 2011

The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

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Why Labour should be concerned about Miliband’s numbers The declining leadership ratings for Ed Miliband have raised again the question of whether these are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys when those sampled are asked about the party they will vote for. Exactly three months ago yesterday, on March 19th 2011, I gambled what was for me a large sum, more than half my university pension that month, on a very simple simple proposition:- We…

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How will the Greek bail-out affect views of the EU?

How will the Greek bail-out affect views of the EU?

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What’ll be the impact of events in Athens? One of the findings in the monthly MORI issues index that invariably attracts controversey is on the EU/Europe. This month there was a zero score for those making it the main issue and just 3% listed it as one of the “other issues”. How can it be, it is asked, that so few people seem to care? That’s hard to answer but even in the survey that coincided with the June 2009…

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Miliband slumps to new leadership rating low

Miliband slumps to new leadership rating low

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Meanwhile Cleggie’s situation improves Details of the Sunday Times YouGov poll are just out with the latest leadership ratings for Cameron/Miliband and Clegg. Here the pollster asks every week in the same standardised format whether those in the sample think that the leaders are doing well/badly. The +/- figures in the chart above shows the current splits with the change since the start of the month. As can be seen Clegg has edged back from his ultra-lows and is moving…

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The poll that adds up to 124 percent

The poll that adds up to 124 percent

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Is the BNP really on 9%? The latest ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is, on the face of it, bad news for Labour, okay news for the Tories but sensational for the BNP. I’ve extracted the table from the detailed data and I cannot make head nor tail of it. If you add up the reported party shares of CON 37: LAB 37: LD 11: BNP 9: SNP 5: GRN 4: PC 4: UKIP…

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ComRes has Labour tied with the Tories

ComRes has Labour tied with the Tories

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Should Labour not be doing better? The latest ComRes poll for the Indepedent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out, and has Labour 37% (-2), Conservative 37% (-1) and the Lib Dems on 11% again. Others are up to 15%. Ed Miliband will be worried that his personal numbers are so poor – his figures have dropped 10-points in a month, according to Politics Home. Ed Balls is little better thought of with only 10% preferring the pugilistic Shadow Chancellor…

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Too much, too soon?

Too much, too soon?

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Is the government taking on too many battles? The impending public-sector strikes announced this week add just another front to the many battles the government’s facing. Ed Miliband raised an aspect of the welfare reforms at the last PMQ’s, the proposed changes to the NHS have been mired in difficulty for months, there’ve been the academies programme and tuition fees in education, and eliminating the deficit will have implications across virtually every aspect of government activity. On top of which,…

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Concern about the economy drops to a 16 month low

Concern about the economy drops to a 16 month low

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Ipsos-MORI What PB regulars will know is my favourite non-voting intention poll of the month – the Ipsos-MORI issues index – is just out and the big change is that concern about the economy is moved to its lowest position since February 2010 – three months before the general election. The final poll before last year’s election had the economy on 70% – now it’s just over 50%. Fieldwork for this poll operates in exactly the same manner as it…

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Will voters back the coalition over pensions?

Will voters back the coalition over pensions?

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..or does it present an opportunity for EdM? So far there hasn’t been any specific polling on the strike threats over public sector pensions though I would expect the pollsters that are out in the field this weekend, including ICM and I think MORI, will have included something on what could be the big issue in the coming months. What’s going to be critical is public opinion and whether voters buy the line that all this is inevitable because we are…

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