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Month: May 2011

Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

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What are the lessons from Irish History? With Alec Salmond’s stunning victory in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, and the disarray among the Unionist parties, is independence now inevitable, or can the Union be saved? There are two main take-aways from the Irish Home Rule saga, both which have huge relevance today. 1) When the Home Rule movement began in the 1870s only a minority of Irish Radicals wanted independence. Most voters cared more about the injustices of Anglo-Irish rule: economic…

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What’ll be the fall-out from the elections?

What’ll be the fall-out from the elections?

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How can the coalition put the pieces back together? That the media focus has been on the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg after this week’s historic set of election is understandable. It was a very bad night for them and him but more relevantly, it was predictably so and the media love a news story that fits their narrative. Nonetheless, the reaction of senior Lib Dems such as former leaders Lords Steele and Ashdown and cabinet minister Chris Huhne in…

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ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

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Do phone firms get better results? With barely a handful of declarations from Northern Ireland still to be made it’s almost a certainty that NO is going to win the referendum by a margin of about 68.5% to YES’s 31.5%. This is a great achievement for Matthew Elliot and all at NO2AV as well as to ICM whose final poll published in the Guardian on Wednesday evening had it 68-32. Interestingly, as the chart shows, it was the two phone…

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And now for the referendum…

And now for the referendum…

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Counting is taking place and the results are coming in. The best site to track the results is here. The turnout is 42% and it looks as though NO will secure at least 60% of the vote. I’m waiting for the Bedford Mayoral race result which has been fought like a parliamentary by-election between the Tories and the Lib Dems. The first round of voting is over and now the second preferences are being counted. Mike Smithson

How did the pollsters do? Part 1 Wales

How did the pollsters do? Part 1 Wales

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Welsh Constituency Result Result YouGov final poll YouGov Exit poll May 5 CON 25.0 20.0 21 LAB 42.3 47.0 44 LD 10.6 8.0 11 PC 19.3 18.0 17 I have not got the aggregate data on the regional list votes yet but will update when that becomes available. My understanding is that this is the first election for the Welsh assembly which has been regularly polled by YouGov and I sense that the firm will be disappointed with the outcome…

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Marf on Clegg’s day after

Marf on Clegg’s day after

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More of Marf’s work can be found at LondonSketchbook.com. Original and prints of all Marf’s PB cartoons are available for sale and make great presents. I’ve got a couple adorning my office. Mike Smithson

The overnight score-cards

The overnight score-cards

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What’ll happen in the Yellow-Blue encounters? Above is a brief snapshot from the BBC site of what has been an appalling night for the LDs, a poor night for Labour in Scotland and a great night for the SNP. North of the border the projection from the BBC is that the SNP could have an overall majority which is a massive turnaround on what it looked like on April 20th. It is extraordinary that just fifteen days ago Labour was…

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Election night continues and it’s not good for the yellows

Election night continues and it’s not good for the yellows

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For the Lib Dems this has been a terrible night in the battles with Labour. What we haven’t got yet is news of the LD-CON battles. From a betting perspective the night is looking great. With SNP “most seats” bets from 7/2 to 8/13 my bank balance is going to look very nice. Mike Smithson