How did the pollsters do? Part 1 Wales

How did the pollsters do? Part 1 Wales

Welsh Constituency Result Result YouGov final poll YouGov Exit poll May 5
CON 25.0 20.0 21
LAB 42.3 47.0 44
LD 10.6 8.0 11
PC 19.3 18.0 17

I have not got the aggregate data on the regional list votes yet but will update when that becomes available.

My understanding is that this is the first election for the Welsh assembly which has been regularly polled by YouGov and I sense that the firm will be disappointed with the outcome – overstating Labour and understating the Tories, the LDs and Plaid.

The YouGov president, Peter Kellner, posted an article earlier this morning which, amongst other things, had information about the firm’s “exit” poll yesterday. I have included those figures in the table above.

As can be seen Labour is down 3 on the pre-election poll, the Tories are up one, the LDs three with PC down one.

Peter reports that there were late shifts in the Principality but not on the scale of what happened in Scotland.

Mike Smithson

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