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Month: March 2011

Andy Cooke asks: Where have the Lib Dem voters gone?

Andy Cooke asks: Where have the Lib Dem voters gone?

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Meeting the Boojum The YouGov Budget poll provides an opportunity to investigate where the Lib Dems from 2010 have gone. Regardless of the fact that different pollsters have found different levels of support for cuts/Coalition economic competence/blame levels, when we look internally in a poll which provides breakdowns by 2010 vote and current preference, we should (hopefully) be able to track some of the net churn. So, in the YouGov poll, the first thing we see is that either the…

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Should you be taking the 7/2 against the SNP?

Should you be taking the 7/2 against the SNP?

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Scottish Election polls Date LAB % SNP % CON % LD % GRN % Constituency             TNS-BMRB/STV 27/03/11 38 37 14 7   YouGov 18/03/11 41 38 10 6   ICM 14/03/11 39 35 13 10   Regional             TNS-BMRB/STV 27/03/11 35 35 14 8 5 YouGov 18/03/11 39 32 11 6 5 ICM 14/03/11 37 34 13 9 4 Could the SNP hang on to power in Scotland? There’s…

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Are we all still spooked by the Baroness?

Are we all still spooked by the Baroness?

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When are all sides going to move on from Maggie? Ed Miliband had a difficult hand to play on Saturday. The thrust of most of the hundreds of thousands who joined the TUC protest was that all cuts were wrong and should be opposed. As Andrew Ranwsley observed in the Observer this is “..not a position the Labour leader can afford to be associated with and not the position he has taken. He tried to finesse his dilemma by addressing…

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Could Labour end up winning 1,000+ seats on May 5th?

Could Labour end up winning 1,000+ seats on May 5th?

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English local elections battleground May 2011 (Rallings and Thrasher LGC) CON defending LAB defending LD defending OTH defending Metropolitan boroughs: 815 seats in 36 councils 186 393 199 37 Unitary authorities: 1928 seats in total in 49 councils 909 501 380 138 District councils: 6647 seats in 194 councils 3931 726 1287 703 Total 9484 seats 5026 1620 1866 878 How will the parties do in the first test since the general? May 5th, just five and a half weeks…

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot

Jonathan’s Sunday Slot

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Labour meets the Four Horsemen Opposition is hard. In the past month, Labour was rudely reminded of the weakness of opposition and just how difficult it will be to regain power. There are four political horseman of the apocalypse that can doom any opposition party. In March, Labour received visits from all of them. Fortunately for Labour, their visits came early, weren’t fatal and the party should learn from the experience. Who are they? Irrelevance. Opposition parties rely on the…

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Both Dave and Nick move up in the leadership ratings

Both Dave and Nick move up in the leadership ratings

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YouGov leadership ratings “…doing well/badly?” All % CON voters LAB voters LD voters David Cameron         Well 47(+4) 96 9 69 Badly 47(-3) 3 87 28 Ed Miliband         Well 32 (-2) 14 67 22 Badly 47(nc) 71 20 53 Nick Clegg         Well 28(+3) 58 5 68 Badly 63(-3) 34 92 29 But Edward drops a couple of notches The first leadership ratings numbers since the budget are out from…

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What’ll be the political fall-out?

What’ll be the political fall-out?

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Will today advance the anti-cuts cause? I’m sure I’m not the only one to have been shocked by some of the images that have been coming out of London’s West End in the past few hours. The real problem all those involved face, those on the official march and those in the breakaway groups, is that polling this week underlines that the need for cuts is well understood and supported by the majority. There might be opposition to specific measures…

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