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Month: January 2011

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

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Is this the group that will destroy LD hopes? Labour has already drawn attention to the decision by the Liberal Democrats to break with tradition and move the writ for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election. The effect of the timing was to seemingly disenfranchise up to 1000 students not yet returning for their studies. Cunning manoeuvre? Yep. New politics? Not exactly. However it is another group of voters that should be causing the Lib Dems greater anxiety in the…

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Is a by-election crack-down on postal voting going on?

Is a by-election crack-down on postal voting going on?

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Oldham E & Saddleworth postal voting Postal ballots issued Valid postal votes cast General Election May 6 2010 10,518 8,316 By-election Jan 13 2011 10,251 ???? Why are the numbers on the decline? We’ve now got the above numbers for the number of postal ballots that have been issued in the by-election which show, extraordinarily, that there’ll be fewer postal voters in next Thursday’s by-election than there were at the general election. So what you might say but the fact…

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Is Paddy Power all mouth and no trousers?

Is Paddy Power all mouth and no trousers?

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“Victory for the Lib Dems in Oldham is now as unlikely as Manchester United finishing at the bottom of this year’s Premier League with Roy Keane in charge!” – Ken Robertson, Paddy Power” Fine – but how come that you are only offering 7/2 against Elwyn Watkins – the Lib Dem candidate. If it was that remote then surely you’d be happy to to lay bets at 100/1 or longer. Political punters are interested in odds – not hyperbole. It’s…

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Remember the Tory poster campaign a year ago today?

Remember the Tory poster campaign a year ago today?

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Was this when it all started to go wrong for the blues? We all, I’m sure, remember this poster campaign for the blues that started exactly a year ago today. Within minutes of it appearing it was being parodied on the internet and then there was the suggestion that the image of Mr. Cameron’s face had been “air-brushed” to make him look better – something that still continues to dog the Tory leader. The approach was perhaps just too personal…

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What about some second place by-election betting?

What about some second place by-election betting?

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The Abrahams (L) and Asif (R) pictures are from Saddleworth News Which of these three could finish as runner-up? With just a week to go before what has become the most intriguing by election for at least a generation this post is very much a plea to the bookies to open up some more interesting Old & Sad markets. This, as has been repeatedly argued, a three way marginal with any of the three main party candidates having a chance…

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The PB 2010 Prediction Competition Results

The PB 2010 Prediction Competition Results

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How PBers got 2010 right and wrong Congratulations to Yet Another David who finished 65 points ahead of Chris Read with Andrew Marshall in third place in the competition – the full table with all 131 players is available here, as well as an Excel spreadsheet showing the detailed breakdown of results. So what were the “Becher’s Brook” questions where people came unstuck? And what were the “dead certs” that nearly everyone got right? The first section looked at key…

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Is the Oldham weather looking good for Labour?

Is the Oldham weather looking good for Labour?

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UK.Weather.com Which party is most affected by inclement conditions? The traditional view has always been that the worse the weather conditions in the run-up and on polling day then the the party that is impeded most is Labour. In recent winter by-elections, however, Labour has done very well so I’m not sure about the old theory So what are we to make of the ten-day weather forecast for Oldham, covering a week on Thursday, which shows that it’s going to…

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Plato becomes the Poster of the Year by just one vote

Plato becomes the Poster of the Year by just one vote

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But would the outcome have been different with AV? When voting in the PB Poster of the Year election closed at bang on 5am Plato had just one more vote than Antifrank and I declare her the winner. The final vote which enabled her to nose ahead was cast at 4.57am. Well down to her and all the others who took part. Thanks also to those who voted. Plato is our first female Poster of the Year and is one…

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