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Month: August 2010

Would EdM prefer being in opposition rather than government?

Would EdM prefer being in opposition rather than government?

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BBC News Could today’s comment come back to haunt him? We all know that the middle of a leadership battle it’s vital to make comments and statements that chime with the party but could Ed Miliband come to regret saying that he wouldn’t go into coalition with Nick Clegg. Who knows what’s going to happen at the next election but even with the planned constituency changes there’s a highish probability of there being another hung parliament. And in that situation…

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Should you be betting on 10/1 Lord Monckton?

Should you be betting on 10/1 Lord Monckton?

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Is he the man who can make UKIP a force? There’s another leadership battle going on – for UKIP, the party which beat Labour for the second place slot in last year’s EU elections. Compared with the current Labour battle the likely contenders are a much more colourful bunch though, admittedly, that’s not difficult. One of the most prominent is the international anti-AGW campaigner and former aide to Mrs. Thatcher, Christopher Monckton. He became one of the party’s deputies earlier…

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Will Dave regret his debate fuel promise?

Will Dave regret his debate fuel promise?

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Is this the problem with policy-making on the hoof? Cast your minds back to Tuesday April 22nd when Adam Boulton of Sky News was moderating the second leaders’ debate in Bristol. A week earlier Nick Clegg had suddenly burst onto the scene with his first debate appearance and the polls had changed dramatically. The general view was that Cameron had performed below par and the pressure was on him to do much better. In the second debate he was clearly…

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Labour level with the Tories in new ICM poll

Labour level with the Tories in new ICM poll

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Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD ICM Guardian 16/08/10 37 37 18 YouGov/Sun 16/08/10 41 37 15 ComRes/Independent 08/08/10 39 33 16 YouGov/Sun Times 06/08/10 42 36 13 YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun…

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Is this the challenge facing Labour’s new leader?

Is this the challenge facing Labour’s new leader?

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Ipsos-MORI To mark the coalition’s first 100 days Ipsos-MORI has put together some current and historical polling data tracking the responses to some of the standard questions that it has been using for decades. The above chart is the one that seems the most significant – a majority continue to believe that what the coalition is doing will improve the state of the economy. Just compare it with the previous government’s record after 2001. Given the scale of cuts and…

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The markets move further away from EdM

The markets move further away from EdM

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Betfair Politics Candidate Best bookie price Betfair Back – Lay David Miliband 2/5 1.41 – 1.43 Ed Miliband 21/10 3.80 – 3.85 Ed Balls 66/1 75 – 120 Andy Burnham 80/1 140 – 300 Diane Abbott 150/1 220 – 330 But is it really done and dusted? Yesterday I had lunch with someone who is close to Labour’s leadership battle and he was far from convinced that a David Miliband victory is a foregone conclusion. He wondered whether the MPs…

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Could leaflets like this spark the first by-election?

Could leaflets like this spark the first by-election?

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electionleaflets.org/ What’ll happen if the court orders a re-run? The above leaflet is one of a number that will be the subject of a special hearing on September 13th by an election court in a case brought by the losing Lib Dem candidate in Oldham East and Saddleworth, Elwyn Wilkins. He’s claiming that the result was swayed by Labour leaflets containing false claims about foreign donations and support from Muslim extremists. This is a highly unusual case that could just…

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…or will Cecil the psychic snail get it right?

…or will Cecil the psychic snail get it right?

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Alexander Drake revisits Australia ahead of Saturday’s election With less than a week to go until the 2010 Australian federal election, we are now seeing a deluge of polling – giving us some mixed messages. The second week of the campaign was the most difficult week of the campaign for Labor, with leading journalist Laurie Oakes running a story that Julia Gillard was wary of supporting a paid parental leave scheme during a Cabinet meeting. Key pollsters such as Newspoll,…

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