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Month: October 2009

Is Labour going to close the gap?

Is Labour going to close the gap?

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PaddyPower What’ll be their best polling position next month? The innovative Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower , has just introduced a new market on what’s going to happen to the opinion polls in November. A range of prices, see above, has been drawn up linked to the best Labour position in voting intention surveys from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM during November 2009. This applies to the final date of fieldwork and will be settled according to the UKPollingReport list. I…

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Did Cameron’s speech energise Labour?

Did Cameron’s speech energise Labour?

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And could that make it more dangerous for Brown? The only full post-Tory conference poll, from Populus in the Times on Tuesday, got crowded out of the news agenda because of the developing MPs Expenses saga following ths Sir Thomas Legg letters. Yet I wonder whether the move by Labour to 30% might just indicate a trend? We’ll need some more surveys, of course, but it was a sharp jump very much against what was expected – particularly the ICM…

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Continuation thread

Continuation thread

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Is The Mole right? “Not too late for Labour to ditch Brown and win”: “Get ready for one last effort to oust Gordon Brown as Labour leader. Some in Westminster are suggesting that if Labour MPs were not so concerned with having to save their bank balances.. they would be more intent on saving their government. …The fact is that, in the eyes of some of the smartest economists and political pundits of both persuasions, David Cameron and George Osborne…

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PMQ’s Returns to more of the same

PMQ’s Returns to more of the same

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Expenses, Brown under pressure.  It’s as if the Summer never happened. So, the first PMQ’s of the new term and expenses is dominating the political agenda again.  Will either of the opposition party leaders choose to go on this?  It would be a brave call to do so. In other news, unemployment continues to rise but at a slower rate than some anticipated.  Could this be Brown’s favoured line to take the attack to his ‘do nothing’ Conservatives? Before any of the supplementary questions,…

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What if there is a cross-party rebellion?

What if there is a cross-party rebellion?

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Are MPs being treated badly? One of the best pieces this morning on the Legg report explosion is from the veteran Labour MP and former BBC current affairs presenter, Austin Mitchell in the Times. He writes:“….the sad fact is that we MPs have nothing and no one to defend us. There is no National Union of Parliamentarians and Related Creeps. I wish that some kamikaze litigant would apply for a judicial review of the review. That would hold everything up….

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Two betting markets that are coming to fruition

Two betting markets that are coming to fruition

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Will Brown’s ratings go up or down? The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower is now offering a monthly market on which way Brown’s YouGov approvals ratings are going to move. This is based on the monthly Sunday Times YouGov survey, the next one of which should come this weekend. Previous results can be seen here and looking at what’s happened in the past four months I think that PaddyPower price of 5/4 on it being in the 20-30% range looks great value….

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Why is the north seeing the biggest changes?

Why is the north seeing the biggest changes?

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Are the big moves in target-rich regions? Whenever the full dataset from a new poll comes out there’s usually a discussion on the site of the regional breakdowns. The problem, of course, is that each sub-set is not subject to the overall weighting calculations and sample sizes are small. In the chart above we see something different – the aggregated MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 compared with what happened at the general election in May…

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