Is Labour going to close the gap?

Is Labour going to close the gap?


What’ll be their best polling position next month?

The innovative Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower , has just introduced a new market on what’s going to happen to the opinion polls in November.

A range of prices, see above, has been drawn up linked to the best Labour position in voting intention surveys from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM during November 2009. This applies to the final date of fieldwork and will be settled according to the UKPollingReport list.

    I should say that this market has been produced after consultation with me and, hopefully, other ones will follow. It comes after this week’s Populus poll which had Labour back to 30% and a sense that the Labour vote is hardening as we get nearer to the general election.

This market is about polling – not the outcome of the election and in my view the 4/6 for the 6% – 10% segment is the best bet. But there’s six weeks to go before the market closes and anything could happen.

Mike Smithson

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