And could that make it more dangerous for Brown?
The only full post-Tory conference poll, from Populus in the Times on Tuesday, got crowded out of the news agenda because of the developing MPs Expenses saga following ths Sir Thomas Legg letters. Yet I wonder whether the move by Labour to 30% might just indicate a trend?
We’ll need some more surveys, of course, but it was a sharp jump very much against what was expected – particularly the ICM poll in the News of the World on Sunday which had Cameron’s party 19 points ahead.
I was quite taken with a comment on the previous thread by HenryG who is always worth reading on Labour matters.
He noted: “1. More Labour MPs and party members feel that Cameron has exposed a flank with his attack on â€˜big governmentâ€™. The Tory conference motivated Labour Party members more than the Labour conference. There was relief that Brighton didnâ€™t descend into farce.
2. More are anti-Brown than ever before. Few think he can hang on 5 months, never mind go into an election asking for 5 more years. There is no need to labour his weaknesses – theyâ€™re well known.
3. Despite all this there is greater uncertainty around Alan Johnson as a probable replacement. He really doesnâ€™t have the hunger and he is losing the patience of many. Jack Straw and David Miliband are part of the mix again.
4. The Legg review has provided a line of gun-powder running straight to Gordon Brown. His allies are diminishing.
5. The nervousness of triggering an election (as in last June) has well and truly gone. A slight narrowing of polls combined with a sense that the election is nigh means that the time is upon us for â€˜one last heaveâ€™ to get rid of Gordon.
We’ve been here so often, of course, but could it be that an improving poll position could embolden parts of the party? If there’s a sense that all might not be lost after all then the case for action is even stronger.
The best Jack Straw price appears to be the 20/1 from Ladbrokes
Meanwhile I’ve just had a punt on the PaddyPower market that the election outcome will be a Tory majority of 49 seats or fewer. This also covers you if there’s a hung parliament or even a Labour victory. I got on at 6/4 but it’s now tightened to 5/4.