Two betting markets that are coming to fruition

Two betting markets that are coming to fruition

Will Brown’s ratings go up or down?

The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower is now offering a monthly market on which way Brown’s YouGov approvals ratings are going to move.

This is based on the monthly Sunday Times YouGov survey, the next one of which should come this weekend. Previous results can be seen here and looking at what’s happened in the past four months I think that PaddyPower price of 5/4 on it being in the 20-30% range looks great value. There hasn’t been a major change in the voting intention shares and I’d be surprised if the approval number is going to move too much from the 26% of September.

Another market that will come to be decided this week is the Bedford Mayoral by-election. The latest Ladbrokes prices are Hodgson LD – 4/7: Parvez CON – 13/8: Bagchi IND – 8/1: Valentine LAB – 20/1. I think the Lib Dem price is too tight and the Tory one has drifted too far – but who knows? Voting is on Thursday.

There are the usual rumours about the postal votes and both the Tories and Lib Dems are treating this like a parliamentary by election.

Cameron has been up twice and Pickles was out on the knocker today as have quite a number of other MPs and front-benchers from the two parties. Labour appears to be going through the motions which is surprising given that they hold the main parliamentary seat.

Mike Smithson

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