politicalbetting.com

As the betting chart shows there have been a number of ups and down in the LD leadership race and on June 23rd Layla Moran was rated on the markets as a 69.4% chance. That was before the ballot packs went out and the series of virtual hustings took place. Since then the Betfair betting chart tells its own story and as can be seen Davey is heading into the count on Thursday with them thinking he’s a near certainty….

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Ed Davey, the only Lib Dem cabinet minister from the 2010-2015 coalition still to be be an MP, has now edged up to a 65% chance on the Betfair exchange on the election to choose the successor to Jo Swinson who, of course lost her to the SNP at GE2019. Quite what this is based on is hard to say but Davey, currently joint acting leader, has been getting a bit more media attention than his opponent, Layla Moran. It…

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The latest chart of the Betdata.io LD leadership market shows that Davey is now the clear favourite on 57% with Moran trailing on 41%. We are shortly to go into the next phases in the race with online hustings taking place before the ballot packs go out. The result won’t be known until the last week in August. In non-lockdown LD elections the hustings have played a big part and my guess is that the online sessions should attract good…

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It’s easy to forget, but there’s a leadership election going on. The Liberal Democrats misplaced their last leader during another disappointing election night and now needs a new one. There are two candidates, over 100,000 eligible voters (yes, really), eight weeks to go, and virtually no media coverage. Perfect time for a look at the betting options. Where we came from Leadership elections are often a reaction to the perceived failures of the previous leader. Corbyn promised radicalism when Miliband…

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