As the betting chart shows there have been a number of ups and down in the LD leadership race and on June 23rd Layla Moran was rated on the markets as a 69.4% chance. That was before the ballot packs went out and the series of virtual hustings took place.
Since then the Betfair betting chart tells its own story and as can be seen Davey is heading into the count on Thursday with them thinking he’s a near certainty.
Given that many of the punters in this market will be LD members then where the money is going is probably a good indicator.
I always thought Moran would have stood a better chance in last year’s contest which was, of course, won by Jo Swinson and there was a mood within the party to elect a woman.
Things are very different this year following a general election result that saw the party’s national vote share increase substantially from 7.4% to 11.7%. Alas more votes didn’t result in more MPs. The party ended up with a net loss of one including the leader’s constituency.
Assuming it is Ed Davey his big first challenge will be next May’s local elections which include all the council seats and mayors whose election were postponed from last May and by then Brexit will be a reality. He needs a goof performance on that day.