Above is the latest RCP table showing the most recent Trump approval ratings. In the US more attention is paid to these in Presidential contests than to voting polls and the trend above for the incumbent is not good.
With the exception is the Republican-friendly pollster, Rasmussen, all the other surveys have dire numbers for Trump and there is no precedent for an incumbent with such disapproval levels getting re-elected.
Of course most Americans are only just now starting to pay attention and after this week’s virtual Republican Convention the big diary date to note is September 30th – the first TV debates.
The consistent Trump attack line that Biden doesn’t have the cognitive ability to be President starts to fall flat when voters see him, as in his speech last week, talking clearly and making a powerful case. In a sense the Trump message have set up such low expectations for Biden that a draw in the first debate will be seen as a victory for the challenger.
On current polling it is hard to see Trump holding on but the numbers might change. In the betting the Biden odds making him a 56% chance look very tempting. My view is that punters are still being influenced by what happened last time.