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Month: September 2004

Measuring the tactical vote unwind

Measuring the tactical vote unwind

Turning conventional thinking on its head The conventional thinking that Tony Blair is certain to be returned with a workable majority even if Labour ’s vote is level with the Tories in the low 30s could be turned on its head by two “tactical voting unwinders” that Politicalbetting users are developing to help forecast the coming election. It is the belief in Blair’s total invulnerability that dominates the betting, the attitude of the media and mostly the way the Prime…

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Markets unmoved by “Labour catastrophe” warning

Markets unmoved by “Labour catastrophe” warning

bbc Labour Chair Ian McCartney warns against Labour complacency Yesterday’s lead story in the Independent on Sunday on Ian McCartney’s warnings on the dangers of complacency and Labour MPs saying that the party faces “catastrophe at the General Election” has made no impression on political gamblers. The Commons seat markets on Bet365 remain unchanged. It’s still evens that Labour will get 335 seats or less – a total that would give it a majority of 22. The spread markets, are…

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Take the 6/4 on the Lib Dems for Hartlepool?

Take the 6/4 on the Lib Dems for Hartlepool?

What’s happened to the Labour campaign? A couple of weeks before the July contests we advised punters wanting to place a bet to subject the competing parties to the Google Test. For Google’s success as the world’s number one search engine has been based on providing the most relevant results in an order based, in broad terms, on the popularity of the site. At Brent East and Leicester South the Lib Dems dominated the first search pages. At Hodge Hill,…

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Milburn – now 2nd favourite to succeed Blair

Milburn – now 2nd favourite to succeed Blair

“A bully & a big-mouth” – Matthew Parris, The Times With a Times commentator calling him this morning a “bully and a big-mouth” Alan Milburn has been installed as 3/1 second favourite to succeed Tony Blair as permanent Leader of the Labour Party by William Hill who make Gordon Brown 4/6 favourite and also offer 16/1 Charles Clarke, Jack Straw; 20/1 Patricia Hewitt; John Reid; 25/1 David Blunkett. This market is not yet available online. The move follows the ructions…

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George Galloway helps the Tories to win on the Isle of Dogs

George Galloway helps the Tories to win on the Isle of Dogs

Tories win their first ever council seat in Tower Hamlets An impressive performance by the Tories and a big surge for George Galloway’s RESPECT’s party saw Labour forced into third place in what at first sight looks a bizarre local council election yesterday in Tower Hamlets. In the Millwall ward on the Isle of Dogs the Tories took a seat because RESPECT split the Labour vote and there was a huge surge in the Tory vote. The result is even…

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Gordon Brown’s price moves out – Milburn’s moves in

Gordon Brown’s price moves out – Milburn’s moves in

bbc Punters re-assess the Chancellor’s chances The price on Gordon Brown being Labour leader at the General Election has moved out and that on Alan Milburn tightened following Tony Blair’s Cabiner re-shuffle that sees a return to office of the former Health Secretary. In just four months the odds on the Chancellor making it to Number 10 before the election have slumped from touching evens at one point in May to about 7/2 today. Milburn had been at 250/1 and…

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Big US-UK split on the outcome of the White House Race

Big US-UK split on the outcome of the White House Race

Betting on the US Presidential election in the UK is now totally out of alignment with betting markets serving the US. If you want to bet on Bush do it in the US – for Kerry then bet in the UK. The Bush returns in the US are now almost double those in the UK and the prices have never been so far apart. British punters are taking a much more pessimistic view of Kerry’s chances and this provides really…

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General Election betting – change of call on Labour

General Election betting – change of call on Labour

bbc Labour can no longer be considered a certainty We are changing our long-standing call that Labour will win most seats at the General Election because the odds are now tighter than the risk of them not doing it. All bets are about judging risk against the return and recent events have moved far enough for us to recommend a more cautious approach to backing Labour. The current best Labour price is 2/7. Any Labour bet less than 1/2 is…

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