Even Reform voters support rejoining Erasmus
Little by little Brexit is being undone. TSE
A little bit of history repeating?
Every passing day confirms that Kamala Harris would have been a better president than Donald Trump but that doesn’t mean she should try and run in 2028. In many ways she was a poor candidate which I expect will be exposed in the primaries in 2028. You can back Kamala Harris at 40/1 on Ladbrokes to be the next president and at 15.5 on Betifair to be the nominee, neither of those feel attractive even as trading bets, perhaps the…
Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance
One of the reasons I have been laying Andy Burnham as next Prime Minister is the logistics of him becoming an MP. Firstly I thought if there were to be a by-election engineered to get Burnham back into parliament then Starmer has the power to ensure an all-women shortlist. Secondly any by-election which could be described as the opportunity to choose the next Prime Minister could turn into an uttter poopshow for Labour, even before the current polling environment. I…
It’s always the economy, stupid
TSE
Will Bonnie Blue get the voters coming to support Reform?
Over the last decade I see to be writing a lot about porn stars, first there was Stormy Daniels who potentially could have resulted in a mushroom shaped cloud over the first Trump presidency now there’s Bonnie Blue. I suspect the Bonnie Blue endorsement will generate more heat than light and give satirists a lot of fun but I do think it will cause the likes of Danny Kruger problems given he recently said ‘I think it’s a problem in…
Your regular reminder national vote share doesn’t always matter under FPTP
At the last election the Liberal Democrats polled nearly 600,000 fewer votes than Reform yet ended up with 67 more MPs than Reform. I mention this because I was speaking with a Liberal Democrat about the dog that hasn’t barked, the Lib Dems not surging in the polls given the implosion of both the traditional big two parties, but several pollsters have the Lib Dems in fifth place but 2024 showed that is irrelevant with good targeting. Starmer’s 2024 victory…
First rule in politics: never believe anything until it’s officially denied
TSE
The end of the Keir show is getting closer
This evening several media outlets have published an exclusive (sic) story about how Andy Burnham is planning on becoming an MP so he can succeed Sir Keir Starmer, The Sunday Times report Allies of Burnham, a former health secretary, are understood to have canvassed support from members of the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs, which includes Burgon, Diane Abbott and John McDonnell. Clive Lewis, who offered last month to give up his Norwich South seat to Burnham, is also…