The future’s bad, the future’s orange
More proof that Kemi Badenoch erred with her approach at PMQs. TSE
Going for the pro Trump UK voters was courageous from Badenoch
Today was Kemi Badenoch’s first PMQs as leader of the opposition and her choice of topic was a bit of a dud going after David Lammy for his past comments about Donald Trump. As we can see in the above YouGov poll being pro-Trump won’t be a vote winner, British politicians have form for dissing the self confessed pussy grabber, including plenty of Tories such as Boris Johnson. Starmer displayed some quality sass today which isn’t typical for him but…
Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump becomes American president again
Whilst the final results haven’t been confirmed as ever it is the economy, stupid, the wave that has unseated incumbent governments across the world, people seldom reward governments and parties that make them poorer. T hat should give the Dems some hope for 2028, particularly if Donald Trump delivers on his promise to return America to the time of Smoot-Hawley, a tariff policy which helped see the GOP lose the next five presidential elections. TSE
The gender split is key
If/when Trump wins then the gender split will be why. The latest results have moved Betfair back to Trump. TSE
A bit of movement away from Trump on Betfair
I think the Indiana results are a bit of unwind because Mike Pence isn’t on the Republican ticket and Trump’s conduct towards Pence on that day of infamy that was January 6th 2021 but the exit poll from Georgia looks good for Trump. I am intrigued that Indiana hasn’t been insta-called by the networks yet. [Edit – CNN haven’t called it but AP have.) TSE
Voting is certainly brisk in this part of Pennsylvania
I am always wary when I see videos like this as they seem to infer record breaking turnout, they haven’t moved the Betfair market. TSE
State of the Union, Election Day
So here we are, finally at election day. And as the comedian Emo Phillips said, ‘It’s hard to believe that this long, crazy election will finally be over in a few months.’ Because it’s that close. None of the models give either candidate much of a margin, from 538 having it 270-268 for Harris, to the 287-251 margins given by Nate Silver and RCP (note also that Nate’s Monte Carlo simulations disagree with his state y state model, giving Harris…
The latest betting situation
TSE