The fundamentals and history still favour Trump and punters agree
I think there’s some value in backing Harris at these prices as this is still a 50/50 race, we shall find out in twenty one days. TSE
The Butterfly Effect – Bush vs. Gore revisited
The year 2000 is perhaps best remembered in the UK for the Millenium Dome, the fuel protests and Y2K. For the US, it would be their first presidential election of a new millennium. Incumbent Bill Clinton was term limited after winning in 1992 and 1996, meaning there would be a new President For the Democrats, Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee won fairly comfortably against a challenge from Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey For the Republicans, Governor George W…
The State of the Union, Week 7
Not much movement, and yet lots of movement (for some).The national polling gap continues to narrow slightly, fairly uniformly (we’ll get to Princeton). And yet… Harris’s vote share is actually increasing, just slightly slower than Trump’s. It would seem that both sides’ voters are firming up their views. Harris may be happy to have a lead, Trump may be happy the lead might not be enough for Harris to overcome the disadvantage the Dems have in the Electoral College. Princeton…
A potentially awkward start for the new Tory leader
The Times are reporting Up to a dozen Conservative MPs are considering standing down before the next election because of Labour’s imminent clampdown on second jobs. Senior party sources told The Times that they expected “a drip of resignations” to begin after the Tory leadership contest, starting in the new year. Those who served in Rishi Sunak’s government and who were passed over for senior shadow cabinet roles are said to be most likely to quit. One former cabinet minister…
I agree with Sir John Curtice
TSE
The politics of masculinity
I read a truly awful book the other day. JJ Bola’s (apologies if you’re a reader of PB) Mask Off: Masculinity Redefined can be perfectly summed up by a translation of its German title: Don’t be a man: Why masculinity is a nightmare for boys. The idea that the solution to toxic masculinity is to implore boys not to be men is, to put it mildly, self-defeating. I’m not trying to deny that we have a problem with masculinity. Feminists…
Alex Salmond has died
I would place Alex Salmond in the top five consequential politicians of my lifetime, he transformed Scottish Nationalism from a minor past time to a near majority in Scotland. It is often forgotten that Scottish devolution was set up to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead and also to ensure no party won a majority at Holyrood, both allusions he smashed in 2007 and 2011 respectively. Alex Salmond was a regular reader of PB and once quoted Mike Smithson and PB…
The cunning and awesomeness of Robert Jenrick
The Independent reports this utterly magnificent operation from Robert Jenrick and his team James Cleverly was eliminated from the Tory leadership race because Robert Jenrick’s team ruthlessly targeted his supporters “who hated Kemi Badenoch”, The Independent can reveal. The former home secretary looked to have been a certainty for the final two of the contest to go to Conservative members when the penultimate set of results were announced on Tuesday, putting him eight ahead of the previous frontrunner Mr Jenrick. With Mr Jenrick just one vote…