Geography today
This polling from Ipsos is fascinating, I find it interesting that support/opposition for the Chagos deal remains largely unmoved when the public are told the specifics of the deal. TSE
If Farage doesn’t distance himself from the odious Trump then his polling might struggle
TSE
More bad news out of America
For gamblers 538 was an essential website as it allowed you deal with the plethora of polls that are published in America and see the trends and the historical trends. Hopefully somebody steps up and fills the gap caused by this. TSE
If the 2028 election is about the economy
If Donald Trump delivers on his policies for the economy then the American economy is going to be as buggered if he had made Liz Truss his Treasury Secretary or Fed Chair. In terms of disasters for the American economy is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets the fall of Singapore meets Manchester United’s 2024/25 season. Cynically the Dems might be delighted as if the economy performing badly then the mantra of it’s the economy, stupid shock kick in…
Punters largely unmoved by J.D. Vance’s recent [redacted adjective] behaviour
J.D. Vance, in American parlance, reminds me of a feminine hygiene product and the bag one would use to place such product in. His performance in the Oval Office last Friday has gone down very badly with Brits but punters seem unmoved. Sadly I think punters are right, his behaviour will not damage him with American voters, although I think the GOP nominee in 2008 will somebody named Trump or somebody related to the current President. TSE
Condoning Trump won’t be helpful in the UK
I suspect this will help the Tories and their campaign to portray Nigel Farage to two time general election loser Jeremy Corbyn, Corbyn’s ratings went into the toilet after his response to the Salisbury poisonings. TSE
It’s one poll but…
The usual caveats apply, this is one poll but Starmer will take these polling improvements. My expectation is that if other polls show something similar it will not last once domestic reality such as the cost of living and the wider economy come back to the fore for the electorate. TSE
Something to track over the next few weeks
Like most I am sceptical that foreign affairs will win (or lose) the next election for Labour but it may well improve Sir Keir Starmer’s very dire personal ratings which normally presages an improvement in this party’s voting intention. I do expect Sir Keir Starmer’s best PM ratings to improve a lot too but the Tories dealt well with the wider invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and they were still walloped at last year’s election. I wonder if Sir Keir…