If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

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Once again an election for a Westminster seat has highlighted the struggle UKIP has with first past the post elections. Even though it was placed third in terms of national vote share at GE2015 it only managed one of the 650 MPs. That was, of course, Carswell’s Clacton seat which he’d won in the 2014 by election when he’d stood as a defector incumbent. Getting to be top dog in one of the Westminster seats requires a very different approach…

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If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

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Is this how John McDonnell topples Corbyn? If Corbyn doesn't improve in the poll. From earlier on this month. https://t.co/gPLPTnD88h pic.twitter.com/SiLovgH2IA — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 If Corbyn is toppled will it be one of his inner circle that wields the dagger? Earlier on this month John McDonnell gave an interview in which he said the polls will reverse in the next 12 months. We’ve already seen articles saying that McDonnell is taking over. If McDonnell feels that Labour…

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If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

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Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Copeland, result:CON: 44.3% (+8.5)LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)IND: 2.6% (+2.6)GRN: 1.7% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 #Copeland declaration imminent. A reminder there's been nothing directly comparable to this since the 19th century https://t.co/he6JBa4Y8B pic.twitter.com/90mk2A7tFv — Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017 In Copeland, Labour came very close to saying vote for us or…

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If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

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Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Stoke on Trent Central, result:LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)CON: 24.3% (+1.8)LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)GRN: 1.4% (-2.2) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the government has seen their share of the vote rise – John Curtice —…

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Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

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Interesting via @AndrewSparrow https://t.co/pdMYYngJqi pic.twitter.com/Wb4kVE1qa1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 23, 2017 Chatter is Labour hold Stoke, Tories take Copeland but consensus so often wrong! results in a few hours that could change political mood — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) February 23, 2017 Looks like party estimates of 30% turnout in Stoke could come true. Utterly dire – and could swing the entire result. From today's WaughZone pic.twitter.com/8ZtAN6vVjl — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 23, 2017 Latest Betfair odds implies UKIP have…

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Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

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D-Day. The day Doris Day came to Copeland pic.twitter.com/Laa4WYkxVp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2017 https://twitter.com/pgo1980/status/834700676710162432 Copeland Parliamentary by-election (Lab defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result at last general election (2015): Labour 16,750 (42%), Conservative 14,186 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 6,148 (16%), Liberal Democrat 1,368 (3%), Green Party 1,179 (3%) EU Referendum Result (estimate): REMAIN 40.15% LEAVE 59.85% Candidates duly nominated: Michael Guest (Ind), Rebecca Hanson (Lib Dem), Trudy Harrison (Con), Ray Ivinson (Ind), Jack Lennox…

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Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

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The final 12 hours of betting on Richmond Park Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m. At that point, it will be recalled, the TV news programmes started reporting that Labour campaigners were suggesting that the Lib Dems had gained the seat by majority of about 2000. As…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:   In part one, Keiran is joined by the former Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, Daily Telegraph and Spectator Charles Moore. Charles is also the authorised biographer of former Conservative Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher and still writes columns for the Telegraph and Spectator today. He spoke to Keiran to give his perspective on the recent Polling Matters / Opinium survey that showed Thatcher as the most popular PM of…

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