LAB’s loss to the SDP in the Greenwich by-election exactly 30 years ago has lessons for the party today

LAB’s loss to the SDP in the Greenwich by-election exactly 30 years ago has lessons for the party today

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A guest slot by Stodge 30 years ago today (roughly), I was pounding the wet streets of Greenwich on a miserable cold Thursday evening. I was doing knock-up for this woman:    This was a by election in what was supposedly a safe Labour seat which had survived the 1983 Conservative landslide but the 1987 by-election was a disaster for the Party of Opposition. The third party vote (in this case the Conservatives) collapsed and Rosie Barnes swept home by…

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Are we seeing the Tony Blair effect on BREXIT? Those saying LEAVE vote “wrong” now same as those saying “right”

Are we seeing the Tony Blair effect on BREXIT? Those saying LEAVE vote “wrong” now same as those saying “right”

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The party splits show Corbyn out of line with party voters I love trackers because the same question is asked in exactly the same way each time the question is put so and as PBers will know I’ve regularly report the above BREXIT finding from YouGov. The latest movement is all within the margin of error and we need to see further polling before any conclusions can be drawn but it does come out at a key moment politically with…

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Betting on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018

Betting on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018

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But is there another Jeremy Hunt bet you should be making? William Hill have a market up whether Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think taking the 2/5 on him being Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018 is the best option. Here’s why you’ll be getting a 40% return in less than ten months. One of the things to take from the Copeland by-election is that Labour’s attempts to use the…

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77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

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Some truly damning @ComResPolls polling for Corbyn and it contains some worrying polling for Labour too. https://t.co/0S4xgZYGw4 pic.twitter.com/ch34ZuPFXS — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 25, 2017 This poll, like the result in Copeland, is a harbinger of a truly awful general election result for Labour. When will Corbyn take responsibility? ComRes have conducted a poll for The Sunday Mirror, and if you’re Jeremy Corbyn or a Labour supporter it makes me for painful reading, the poll shows A damning poll after Labour’s…

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Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions

Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions

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As many PBers will attest his guide’s been on the money in the past 2017 Oscars. They say when things aren’t going well the Oscars cheer themselves up by turning to fantasy. Enter the musical La La Land with a record 14 nominations. Cheesy and cheerful it might take your mind off Trump for a couple of hours but sadly the memory of it will disappear long before he does. Best Picture: Arrival, Fences, Hackshaw Ridge, Hell or High Water,…

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The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

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Just where is Labour’s floor for 2020? One of the best political tips of the 2015 general election was to back Labour for 0-5 seats in Scotland. When William Hill first put the market up – after the independence referendum – they marked that outcome at no less than 125/1. (I apologise for not being able to namecheck the PBer who tipped the bet; I forget who it was.) That price was a testament to the inertia of thinking as…

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During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Summary : February 2017 February local by election aggregate % vote shares with changes on last time CON 24%-5 LAB 24%-5 LD 28%+18 UKIP 9%-6 OTH 9%+3 Liberal Democrats 7,162 votes (28% +18% on last time) winning 7 seats (+4 seats on last time) Labour 6,305 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,255 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 2 seats (-7 seats on last time)…

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Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

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It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something.  The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…

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