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Beckenham Nov 1997. (LAB polls leads 30%+) Eddisbury Jul 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Kensington & Chelsea Nov 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Why the betting markets might be getting Stoke Central and more particularly Copeland wrong Almost ever since the Copeland by-election was declared the Conservatives have been a very strong odds on favourites. As has been pointed out repeatedly for them to take a seat off Labour while being the governing party would be an extraordinary achievement and…

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What’s this going to do to the by elections? With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow. As can be seen above things look as though they could be quite nasty and it’s hard to see how this will not impact on turnout. The idea that poor weather can cut the number of participants in elections has been knocked on the head…

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This week will see six by-elections but not all on the same day. There is a by-election tonight, three tomorrow night and on Thursday two Parliamentary by-elections that may break a duck that has lasted anything from 35 years to 57 years and create a vacancy at the head of the Opposition. But first, as they say in all the great stage plays, we have the opening curtain Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result…

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An unlikely LAB hold in Darlington kept an unelectable leader in office So much has happened in the Stoke central by-election that it it looks set to take its place in by election history alongside what many regard as the most sensational of all, Darlington, in 1983. That took place exactly a month after the Bermondsey when Simon Hughes had an unlikely and still controversial win against LAB. The political atmosphere at the time, like today, was highly charged as…

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Copeland gives a good demonstration of why governments so rarely gain by-elections A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers). I mention this not as advice – it’s too late for that – nor to poke fun at the volunteer, who shall remain nameless (it wasn’t me!), but…

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