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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll

13/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Leo is joined by Lib Dem writer and campaign strategist Mark Pack to discuss the Lib Dem fightback and the new Polling Matters / Opinium survey on the party’s prospects. The Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls, but how high can they go, where should they look for new voters, should they change leader and can they win the Gorton by-election? Later in the show, Leo and Mark discuss the…

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The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

12/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Brutal Lib Dem leaflet for Manchester Gorton by-election. pic.twitter.com/VUQq3zS23E — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 12, 2017 An attack also designed for Remainers Above is a brutal Lib Dem leaflet that is going out in Manchester Gorton where the by-election takes places on May 4th. The party which used to hold all but two of the council seats in the seat believes it is in with good chance of getting a good result and is throwing a lot at the campaign….

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Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

12/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

GOP holds on in Kansas by-election in President Trump's 1st electoral test. Maj down from 27% to 7.2% https://t.co/pSBHzlzf8V pic.twitter.com/nvPaHl9YFv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2017 The margin down from 27% to 7.2% If the Democrats are to make a dent on the Republican following last year’s presidential election then they are going to need to make 24 gains which would take away the GOP majority in Congress. An opportunity arose last night with a by-election in a Kansas…

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Punters now taking a more positive view of Trump’s survival chances

11/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Now he’s odds-on to serve till 2020 or later On the UK betting markets at least punters are taking a more positive view about Donald Trump’s chances of staying in the post till 2020 or beyond. It seems his action on Syria has helped take the edge off the Putin link narrative that was proving to be becoming a problem for him. But the big picture remains negative and his party could still turn on him in the run up…

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Some Brexit special bets

11/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, my initial view is that this is market is a good way of contributing to the Paddy Power Christmas bonus fund. Whilst my inner Euro-Federalist might be tempted to back the UK to rejoin the EU at some time in the future, I’d need slightly longer odds but the biggest obstacle is that I don’t fancy tying my money up for maybe the next 33 years. The 1/10 on the UK establishing a…

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The Tory GE2015 expenses probe could have been the reason that the party’s been polling the LD seats it gained

11/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The blue team taking precautionary measures in case of possible by-elections? Last week there were a number of stories sparked off first by George Eaton in the New Statesman about a series of private Crosby Textor polls that the Tories are said to have commissioned in many of the 27 seats that were gained from the LDs at GE2015. The reported polling results suggested that the Tories would struggle to hold onto all but a small handful of them. The…

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More of those who actually vote in local and general elections went for REMAIN not LEAVE

10/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Prof John Curtice LEAVE won because of its success with the politically disengaged It has become very common since the referendum to view all other elections through the prism of what happened on June 23rd last year. Thus parliamentary constituencies are divided into leave or remain depending on how they voted and this becomes the shorthand for describing a place. We are told, for instance, that twice as many Labour MPs are in constituencies that voted leave than remain leading,…

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Len McCluskey thinks LAB could be in government after GE2020 – a pipe dream or a possibility?

10/4/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Don Brind on where the UNITE boss is right and where wrong Len McCluskey is right. Labour could be back in government as a result of the 2020 General Election. I agree with the Unite leader that while there’s little chance of Labour winning the election there’s a decent chance that the Tories will lose it. McCluskey is rather more emphatic than me: “ I don’t think the Tories will win the next election. They might be the largest party…

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