Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the Lib Dem fightback with Mark Pack, a campaign strategist and expert on the party. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. The SNP lost a referendum and won a landslide. Could the Lib Dems do something similar by becoming the party of Remain voters? This week’s PB/Polling Matters Opinium poll suggests the party could do well with a relentless focus on stopping Brexit. But it…

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Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

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This week YouGov released some fascinating polling on Theresa May and her popularity. As we can see from the above chart it helps explains why Mrs May has such a colossal lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would make the best Prime Minister and why if Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader at the next general election, the 2020 general election is going to be the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar war. But is her popularity down to Mrs May not…

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Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

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  Tories take 21% lead with @ComResPolls poll for Sunday Mirror/Independent Con 46 (+4) Lab 25 (nc) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 9 (-1) Greens 4 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2017 This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn Which might explain the support for a new centre…

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What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

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Who should win what, and what will the misses and bonuses mean? The expectations game is an unavoidable part of politics and one that pundits and practitioners play with relish. It is, of course, such an intrinsic part of betting that it’s difficult to meaningfully isolate betting from expectations. There are more direct practical consequences of how a party performs against expectations. It’s one thing to lose seats; it’s another to lose more than people expect – or, for that…

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Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

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Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservatives 501 (38% +12%), Labour 468 (35% -3%), Independent 318 (24% +1%), Green Party 32 (2%, no candidate at last election) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 33 (3%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Con Piddle Valley on West Dorset (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 303 (61% -8%), Green Party 195 (39% +19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 108 (22%)…

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The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

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But who will join her? With the French presidential election moving into the final two weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the betting by concentrating on who will make it to the final two. That runoff election takes places a fortnight later on the Sunday after British locals. There are lively betting markets on the first round of the election and I have taken the latest chances based on the Betfair Exchange for my chart above….

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Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

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  Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 33, Independents 9, Conservatives 4 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,464, 1,291, 1,079 (38%) Conservative 996 (26%) Independents 893, 762, 758 (23%) Liberal Democrat 524 (14%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 21,181 (34%) LEAVE 40,177 (66%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Emma Alberti (Green), Mike Allen (Ind), Annalise…

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The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

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This could be a growing issue in many countries Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries. This body which has remained intact since 1949 and has played a key part in many counties security since that time. But political considerations are changing and we cannot assume that things will continue as they are. No doubt the weakening of this alliance is a key objective for Mr. Putin…

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