First GE2017 poll from ICM – post announcement Con: 46% (+2) Lab: 25% (-1) LD: 11% (+ 1) UKIP: 8% (-3) Green: 4% (n/c) By 49% to 17%, the public thinks that Theresa May is right to seek an early general election https://t.co/Lei8VydF1t pic.twitter.com/z9A2oep41X — YouGov (@YouGov) April 18, 2017
Candidate selections in the seats could be interesting. What about George Osborne – an opportunity for him to stand down in Tatton? And what about Douglas Carswell in Clacton – will he try to get returned as an independent?
Can she satisfy or circumvent The Fixed-term Parliament Act? pic.twitter.com/pkKaBrVPuF — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2017 https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/854275303753043968 Will Labour agree to an early election? Given the polls I can understand why Mrs May is calling a general election, but there’s a few major issues to sort out Can she satisfy the fixed-term parliament act in the vote tomorrow? Will Mrs May receive any backlash, like Gordon Brown, for going back on her word on holding an early election If she…
Latest Macron-Le Pen polling Latest Macron-Fillon polling Latest Macron-Melenchon polling The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round up of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner. Melenchon is the only one of the serious contenders who consistently gets into the 40s in hypothetical match-ups against Macron. Fillon fares worst with Le Pen in the middle. The big…
The battle for France is a four horse race #presitrack 17/04MLP 22% (-1)EM 22% (=)FF 21% (+1)JLM 18% (+1)BH 8% (-1)@LesEchos @ORPI_France @radioclassique https://t.co/7ux5fUL7f6 pic.twitter.com/cvdDDGqL8g — OpinionWay (@opinionway) April 17, 2017 Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen pic.twitter.com/tc1Bes3ocD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2017
At Richmond Park the LD numbers understated their position For all the speculation on Labour’s polling collapse there’s only one thing that really matters – how the party performs in actual elections and the first real test of that is May 4th which includes, of course, the Manchester Gorton by-election where they are defending a majority of 24k. On the face of it Gorton looks impregnable but is it? The Lib Dems have published their latest canvas data for the…
New @YouGov @thetimes poll Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)https://t.co/xyWwshHpSJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 .@YouGov @thetimes The LD have climbed back to 12%, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 For those of us who thought 25% was Labour’s floor, we might need to start re-evaluating our assumptions. Surely Labour and Corbyn can’t carry on like…
William Hill have a market up on whether John Bercow will be Speaker until 2018. Ordinarily I’m not in favour of backing 1/6 shots, but given that the much hyped attempt by Tory MP James Dudderidge to topple Speaker Bercow turned out to be a bit Spursy* as only five MPs sign motion of no confidence in John Bercow. From that I can conclude there’s no appetite, let alone a majority, in The Commons to topple John Bercow, so I’d expect…