politicalbetting.com

What a lot of Boris Johnson fans seem to forget or ignore is that it wasn’t lockdown parties, Brexit, or centerists Dads who ousted Boris Johnson, it was Boris Johnson lying about knowingly promoted a known sexual predator in a position of authority and then getting his ministers to unknowingly repeat that lie publicly. People do not like being made to look like idiots particularly on serious matters like sexual misconduct or racism. The way Tories spent the early part…

Read More Read More

Rishi Sunak must feel like the late lamented The Notorious B.I.G. who sang ‘Mo’ money mo’ problems’ after Frank Hester’s repugnant comments about Diane Abbott. If Sunak was to match his rhetoric on extremism with actions then he would return the £10 million donation from Frank Hester and wouldn’t have prevaricated for so long before calling Hester’s words for the racist poison they were. The reality is that in an election year the Tories are in no place to return…

Read More Read More

Overnight it was confirmed that Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump will take on President Biden in November’s presidential election, the key thing that stood out for me was the result in Georgia, a state critical to the outcome of the last election. It fits in with my theory that there is an enthusiam gap for Trump which if continues until election day will see him lose in November. TSE

Talk of a May election refuses to go away but I still feel a May 2nd election is as likely as Boris Johnson telling the truth. The reality is whilst Sunak has around a fortnight to call a May 2nd election he needs to call it by the middle of next week to tidy up the legislative issues still outstanding in parliament and there’s no rush for that at the moment, you don’t have an election whilst key staff are…

Read More Read More

I am very dubious about this alleged strategy from Sunak which reminded me of the brilliant film Blazing Saddles and the scene where the black sheriff bluffs and puts a gun to his own head to deal with the racist locals. Calling an election is one of the few things that Sunak has absolute control of and even though he is a poor strategist I don’t think he will cede that power to Reform defectors unless they actually wipe out…

Read More Read More

Lee Anderson defecting to UKIP is and isn’t a bit of a surprise given his love of switching political parties, but only a few weeks ago Reform were saying Lee Anderson wasn’t for them. Sadly Lee Anderson is a hypocrite so will not be giving us a by-election, I suspect he’s doomed whatever banner he stands under at the next election. An interesting market would be to see how many Tory MPs defect to Reform before the general election, there’s…

Read More Read More

Irish voters have inflicted a comprehensive and humiliating political defeat on Ireland’s political and NGO class, which overwhelmingly supported proposals presented as “progressive” measures updating the Constitution.  Why? Shortly, the changes were badly drafted, unclear as to their purpose, erased women and seemed to reduce the state’s obligations to vulnerable groups, particularly the disabled and their carers.  Some background Ireland’s 1937 constitution reflected a conservative Catholic approach to social matters. Article 41.2 referred to a woman’s “life within the home”…

Read More Read More

Fun fact, 7 is the percentage of voters who want an election in January, 7% will be the Tory share of the vote at the general election if they hold a general election which straddles the Christmas holidays. TSE