LAB fancied to make more by-election gains in the Feb 15th contests
There’s been very little betting interest in the two Tory by-elections defences that take place on February 15th. The assumption is that these will be two easy victories for LAB that will take to 7 the number of GE2019 CON seats that have gone red during this parliament. Above are the GE2019 outcomes which point to smaller swings being required than other LAB gains this parliament Mike Smithson
Punters give Trump a 79% chance of winning every state primary
The Smarkets rules for this bet are: Mike Smithson
Upending assumptions
One of the major pillars for me expecting Joe Biden to win re-election is abortion. The anticipated red wave election in 2022 failed to materialise was down to the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in mid 2022. The Republicans ended up with just a net gain of 4 seats in the House and also allowed the Democratic Party to maintain control of the Senate, and there have also been several elections…
Will GE2024 produce a majority seats winner with a minority of votes?
The report notes: “In 2010, First Past the Post delivered us a coalition government, the first since 1945, under a system designed to produce single-party majorities. In 2015, First Past the Post gave us the most disproportionate election to date with a majority government secured with under 37 percent of the vote share. In 2017, despite over 80 percent of votes going to just two parties (the highest combined vote share since 1970), First Past the Post could not deliver a majority…
Will Sunak still be PM at the general election
Every week or so it seems we get a new rumour about plots for a different CON leader to be in place at the general election. This, of course, requires that there are enough Tory MPs ready to demand a confidence vote and for that vote to go against the incumbent. I think the Smarkets betting chart has this about right with about a 16-17% chance that he won’t be there. I’ve always felt that the big problem Sunak has…
What’s happening with the polling “don’t knows”
Mike Smithson
The State of Process – The Process State
Understand procedure, understand warUnderstand rules, regulations – Forever Failure, Draconian Time album, Paradise Lost Consider a few straws in the wind – The National Trust plans to spend £250,000 on a footbridge a dozen feet long.– “..it is estimated that social workers spend between 12% and 20% of their time working directly with children and families, the remainder being spend on administrative tasks”–Prosecutions based on computer algorithm. Despite the results being self evidently insane, the prosecutions were expanded. Aside from making a…