It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British En Marche happen

It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British En Marche happen

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EXC: Dozens of Tory MPs have emailed Andrea Leadsom urging her to run for leader again https://t.co/X8iKsfggKh — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) June 29, 2017 Why else would they back Leadsom? It is very reminiscent of Labour MPs backing Michael Foot just before defecting to the SDP so their old party was saddled with an unappealing leader. Business Insider report today that Dozens of Conservative MPs have urged Andrea Leadsom to run for the party leadership since Theresa May’s failure to…

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GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win

GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win

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One of the features of living in a super LAB-CON marginal less than an hour from London that regularly changes hands is that you get a lot of attention at general elections. Corbyn’s first big outside visit after the election was called in April was to Bedford which was a regular port of call by David Cameron and earlier LAB leaders at GE10 and GE15. So what was striking about TMay’s GE17 campaign is that it was almost invisible here…

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David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

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The big question is whether there’ll be a contest or will TMay hang on So TMay got her Queen’s Speech through the Commons with a majority of 14 thanks to the DUP and that probably reduces the immediate pressure on the PM. But without a majority it looks set to be an interesting time ahead. Unlike the CON-LD coalition the DUP obligation to vote with the Tories is limited to very specific issues and the chances are that there’ll be…

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As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17 result under new boundaries

As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17 result under new boundaries

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Electoral Calculus Will Team Arlene vote to make them Northern Ireland’s 2nd party One of the issues likely to come up next year is the boundary review and the reduction of Commons seats from 650 to 600 MPs. Martibn Baxter of the Electoral Calculus has produced the above projection of the implied GE17 based on the latest proposals. I thought it timely to publish this given that the DUP will be voting with the Tories this evening ensuring the successful…

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It was the Question Time special exactly a week before polling day that sealed Theresa’s fate

It was the Question Time special exactly a week before polling day that sealed Theresa’s fate

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Reappraising the polling that got rubbished by the so called experts Last night I watched again the Question Time leaders’ special with Corbyn and TMay from the University of York that took place on June 1st exactly a week before the election. On the night itself the PMs performance was well received particularly by right wing commentators. The only polling on this event, carried by Survation on the Saturday, had TMay doing badly and Corbyn doing well. The survey ,…

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Vince Cable looks set to become the first Strictly contestant to lead a political party

Vince Cable looks set to become the first Strictly contestant to lead a political party

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The news tonight that ex-coalition cabinet minister, Ed Davey, is not planning to stand for the LD leadership means that that former Business Secretary Secretary looks set to take over from Tim Farron as LD leader. Davey became the third prominent LD to announce he wasn’t going forward after Jo Swinson and Norman Lamb. The formal nomination process ends on July 20th which means that Vince will have to wait till then before taking the crown. As someone pointed out…

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If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic Theresa could carry on I’d be a buyer

If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic Theresa could carry on I’d be a buyer

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There’ll always be a reason why now’s not the time for her to go For a party that has a reputation for knifing failed leaders the Tories have been pretty pathetic so far with Theresa May. The deal with the DUP makes her position securer and there is always going to be a reason why deposing the woman that got the party into this mess should remain. Provided there are no defections or by-election losses her parliamentary position should hold…

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Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

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This appears to be between Davis and Hammond There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment. The race, if that is indeed what we re watching, seems to be polarising around the Brexit Secretary, David Davis and Chancellor Philip Hammond. If there was to be an early contest, and that…

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