This appears to be between Davis and Hammond
There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment.
The race, if that is indeed what we re watching, seems to be polarising around the Brexit Secretary, David Davis and Chancellor Philip Hammond. If there was to be an early contest, and that is far from certain, these are the two that punters think have the best chance.
Of the other options Ruth Davidson is not an MP while the accomplished Amber Rudd has a very small majority in her Hastings and Rye constituency.
I’ve been impressed with both Davis and Hammond in the post election period and believe they’d both do better than the incumbent who will be tarred forever by her disastrous decision to call the general election and the manner in which she fought it.
There’ve been consistent reports that Tory MPs will “move” soon against TMay and even reports that we could see a repeat of Michael Howard’s elevation in 2003. Then there was a vote of no confidence in IDS and Howard was the agreed only contender to put himself forward.
Looking back at that period there appeared to be more consensus within the party then than we see now.
I’d suggest Davis probably needs a vacancy to occur faster than Hammond. His chances are closely linked to the Brexit negotiations and he could be damaged if he’s not seen to have done well. Because of the weakness of the woman who got the party into its electoral mess the reassuringly nick-named “Spreadsheet Phil” is in a strong position and can probably bide his time.