If you’ve been betting on Farage as next UKIP leader then look away now
Looks like Farage has decided against becoming leader of the amateur shambles that is UKIP. https://t.co/pZrWoVZk3t pic.twitter.com/ViHtPxxIp3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 1, 2017 TSE
Everything is negotiable, how the election result may have improved Britain’s negotiating position in the Brexit talks
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Theresa May called the general election calling for a mandate for her Brexit vision. In her own words: “Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong. They underestimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country….
Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories
But genuine gains from the Lib Dems and Labour did. Jeremy Corbyn would be prime minister today if the Scottish Tories had done as badly three weeks ago as they did in 2015 (or any of the previous four elections). Without the dozen gains north of the border, a deal with the DUP wouldn’t have given her the numbers and a deal with anyone else couldn’t have been done. It would have been game over. Given the different nature of…
Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)
Dawdon on Durham (Lab defence) Result: Labour 693 (52% +6% on May 2017), Independent 633 (48%, no candidate in May 2017) Labour HOLD with a majority of 60 (4%) Hedge End and Grange Park on Eastleigh (Lib Dem defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 668 (56% +14% on last time), Conservative 316 (27% +4% on last time), Labour 144 (12% +7% on last time), Green Party 41 (3%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 14 (1% -29% on last time)…
If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side
There’s been just one by-election in past 16 years caused by death/illness of CON incumbent There is a lot of hope on the Labour side that the small CON working majority with the DUP could be cut as result of a by-election loss. The only problem with this is that historically there have been very few by-elections caused by the illness or death of the CON incumbent. Since 2001 there has been just one compare with 15 Labour health/death ones….
One and a half nations, how a longstanding trend has for now been checked
Picture: The current political map of the UK (via the BBC) Britain is a geological seesaw. After the last ice age retreated, the release of the weight of the ice has resulted in the bedrock on the northern half of the island rebounding, forcing the southern half of the island as a consequence to sink. It also has a longstanding political north-south seesaw. The timescales are not quite as long term as the geological seesaw but they have proved enduring…
Tonight’s council by-elections
Four council by-elections today: two Labour defences, one Conservative and one Lib Dem. @AndrewTeale's previews: https://t.co/sB47GgLt27 pic.twitter.com/oJECfONqkD — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 29, 2017 TSE
Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May
Labour sources now say three frontbenchers sacked for defying whip – Ruth Cadbury, Catherine West and Andy Slaughter — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017 Daniel Zeichner resigned before the vote – four holes on Labour front bench on what should have been bad day for Tories — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017 Senior Labour figure, not Corbynite, says 'disappointed' Umuna put down amendment cos politically 'unecessary' to force labour split today — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017…