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The evening must read

4/7/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Great read on life inside the May bunker ft some true blue language https://t.co/TaYvPVLzV6 via @FT pic.twitter.com/8Yvs2buf50 — Jules Birch (@jules_birch) July 4, 2017 ‘Due to a terrible miscalculation of scale the entire battle fleet was accidentally swallowed by a small dog.’ – Douglas Adams That quote from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy probably best sums up the mess Theresa May and the Tory party finds themselves in due to Mrs May’s calamitous decision to call an early election and run…

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Jeremy Hunt is clearly on manoeuvres and he’s also 100/1 to be next Tory leader

4/7/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Jeremy Hunt snapped flashing briefing notes that warn hard Brexit means doctors 'fleeing' UKhttps://t.co/UwKamIiiVz pic.twitter.com/oOdhm2f4qq — Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) July 4, 2017 FT BREXIT LEAD: Top ministers push to keep EU pharma ties #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/sHdlis5Ntr — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) July 3, 2017 .@Jeremy_Hunt clearly on Brexit manouevres: today's @FT letter and now an 'accidental' flash of doc in Downing St #sensiblebrexit — James Chapman (@jameschappers) July 4, 2017 Why I’ve taken the 100/1 on Jeremy Hunt to be Theresa May’s…

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Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government

4/7/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

If Martin McGuiness could work with the DUP why couldn’t Jeremy Corbyn? That rhetorical question works the other way round too. If Jeremy Corbyn is to see private prediction to Michael Eavis at Glastonbury that he could be Prime Minister in six months fulfilled he can only get there with the combined votes of all the non-Tory parties – including the DUP. By contrast those 10 DUP votes were enough to give Theresa May an effective Commons majority. On the…

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And now for the Corbyn of the Right

3/7/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

18 out of 20 UKIP MEPs including Farage may quit party if anti-Islam candidate becomes leader https://t.co/leXWRualA7? — Jonathan Walker (@jonwalker121) July 3, 2017 For the second time since 2015 a British party might have fallen victim to entryism. Today it was reported that Ukip MEPs are preparing a mass walkout if an anti-Islam leadership candidate backed by Tommy Robinson is given a senior position at the top of the party. Officials are panicking that a wave of far-right activists…

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One thing’s for sure post GE17 – incumbent PMs won’t risk skipping the TV debates again

3/7/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This means the debates are here to stay After the manifesto the other big avoidable mistake of TMay’s GE2017 campaign was the refusal to take part in TV leaders’ debates which became part of the UK political scene at GE2010. No doubt the decision by her campaign to avoid them was driven by the very comfortable position the Tories had in the polls and that they appeared to be on course for a big win. Initially the CON leader’s decision…

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If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019

3/7/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Good scoop. Terrible idea? https://t.co/GzIq9bfKJq — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 2, 2017 Even before her first anniversary as Prime Minister, Mrs May’s departure is being planned. The Sun are reporting that PRESSURE is growing on Theresa May from Tory grandees to name June 2019 as the time she will step down as PM. Senior party figures want her to spell out a timetable for her No10 departure at the Conservatives’ annual conference in October. Declaring she will stay on…

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Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of future polling then the 4/1 might be value

2/7/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Iff this @Survation poll with a 9% lead for Remain turns out not to be an outlier but the start of a trend, what will this mean for Brexit? pic.twitter.com/dMxkLBfhwW — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 2, 2017 No one but no one knows what is going to happen in two years' time. But it is going to be the reckoning: @adamboultonSKY Sunday Times £ pic.twitter.com/0N5IlA3h6V — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 2, 2017 If the @Survation polling on Brexit turns out to…

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How the Corbyn surge has left the Lib Dems positioned largely as an anti-Tory party

2/7/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Labour aren’t in second place in any of the seats the Lib Dems hold, and Labour hold only 4 of the top 30 Lib Dem target seats Looking through the results of June 8th I was struck by how much the Corbyn surge has left the Lib Dems as a Tory facing party. As we can see in above chart, in not one of the twelve seats the Lib Dems hold are Labour second, it is either the Tories or…

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