If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019

If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019

Even before her first anniversary as Prime Minister, Mrs May’s departure is being planned.

The Sun are reporting that

PRESSURE is growing on Theresa May from Tory grandees to name June 2019 as the time she will step down as PM.

Senior party figures want her to spell out a timetable for her No10 departure at the Conservatives’ annual conference in October.

Declaring she will stay on in power until after Brexit – which takes place at midnight on March 30, 2019 – would strengthen Britain’s negotiating hand, they argue.

EU leaders would know they have no choice but to deal with Mrs May rather than waiting for any imminent successor.

But as soon as Brexit has happened, they want the PM to trigger a nine week Tory leadership contest.

Under the scenario – relayed to The Sun by three senior Tories independently of each other – Mrs May’s replacement would then take over to prepare for the next general election by 2022.

One senior Tory minister told The Sun: “We need the certainty of Theresa staying where she is until Brexit to stand a chance of getting a decent deal.

“But she has to make it known publicly that she’s going nowhere until then for the Europeans to believe it, and conference is the time to do that.

“Going at that point also means she can soak up all the toxicity over Brexit and the deal, such as signing a big cheque, so the new leader gets a clean sheet.”

This plan does have some merits for the Tories and the country, but I think it would be bad for Mrs May personally, her already destroyed political authority would be diminished further, as Tony Blair can attest announcing your departure date in advance can be a mistake and your party might force you out sooner. 

However Tom Newton Dunn noted on twitter there’s already ‘a good 30 Tory MPs are actively campaigning for themselves [to be PM] right now,’ not announcing her departure won’t cause people try to start trying to topple her, as they are already doing it.

But as I noted above this plan would be good for the Tory party and the country and Mrs May for all her many many undoubted faults I think would want to do what is best for both party and country, so she might go for it. I suspect deep down she knows if she doesn’t agree to this request from the men in grey suits, she’ll face a vote of no confidence this autumn, Ladbrokes are offering 4/1 on 2019 being the year of Mrs May’s departure, I’m backing that, and I think so should you.


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