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Table from Wikipedia As we all know this has been a terrible Parliament for the Conservatives in parliamentary by-elections. As well as LAB the LDs have picked a quite a few seats. But how many of the Tory losses go back to Sunak’s party at the general election? Certainly the history of recent general elections suggests that most will revert back. One factor of course is that the boundaries at the general election will be different. Also the amount of…

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Of the sloping-shouldered former Post Office Chairman, Henry Staunton, whose interview is the lead story in today’s Sunday Times. There is much of interest in it, but this detail stuck out: “Early on, I was told by a fairly senior person to stall on spending on compensation and on the replacement of Horizon, and to limp, in quotation marks – I did a file note on it – limp into the election,” he said. “It was not an anti-postmaster thing, it was just…

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Being seen as pro Palestinian might be a voter winner, so perhaps the contretemps in Rochdale might not be so problematic for Labour and their candidate. Interestingly the criticisms of Israel/the pro Palestinian comments of The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton might also boost the Tories however salience applies here. Things like the NHS, the economy, and dentists will determine how most people vote not events in the Holy Lands. TSE

The logic underpinning David Gauke’s argument is very persuasive, this part in particular. Part of the right’s narrative after an election defeat will be, first, that the Tories leaked too many votes to Reform and, second, that the right’s best communicators were not employed in making the Tories’ case. The solution will be obvious to the Tory right. Bring back Boris and bring in Nigel. Unite the right and have in place a team who can connect with ordinary people. It…

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If Starmer looks like a winner and the next general election result seems a foregone conclusion then there may well be complacency which could lower turnout but I expect that’s a Tory hope, my expectation is that there are enough voters who would crawl over broken glass to vote the Tories out. TSE

I think this judgment is what will hurt Donald Trump a lot personally, being financially castrated. Coupled with his other legal problems it may solidify his support with the insurrectionist MAGA mob it will repel independents and that’s what will hurt him politiically. Hurrah for the legal system that will come for you whether you are a pleb or President. TSE

There have been 21 by elections so far this parliament. What prospects do the results show for the government at the next general election? Let’s start by leaving aside a) the two SNP defences, as neither involved the Conservatives as the main challenging party, and b) Southend West, due to the special circumstances in which no major party challenged the defending Conservatives. This leaves us with 18 contests. The swing from Conservatives to the main challenger (Labour in 14, Liberal…

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What is most striking is that three out of four worst Tory by election defeats to Labour since 1945 have come in the last year under Sunak’s leadership, at some point Tory MPs will be thinking even a tub of lard, a lettuce, or Liz Truss would do a better job than Sunak. I suspect a significant body of Tory MPs will think the way to salvation is chasing the 13% of Reform voters which will be a mistake. The…

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