Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s

Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s

I would have thought the first poll showing Labour in the 30s would have an impact on the betting markets. One of the first things I learned visiting PB in the mid 2000s was a maxim by Sir Robert Worcester which was to ignore the lead but to focus on the share of the vote.

I suspect why the betting market hasn’t moved is that appears to be an outlier, the Focaldata poll still has Labour in the 40s but even if the Yougov poll is accurate is accurate Labour are still on course for a mahoosive majority and it is entirely possible the next YouGov poll could have the Tories in fourth place. This YouGov poll is several magnitudes worse for the Tories than it is for Labour in the 30s.

A few weeks ago I spoke to a Labour strategist who said the worst thing that could happen for Labour is a plethora of polling showing Labour voters are safe to vote Lib Dem, Green, SNP etc in the knowledge Labour are on course for a stonking majority, this will end any complacency amongst left leaning voters.

The betting market could change if other pollsters start showing Labour in the 30s but I think a good trading bet might be to back no overral majority if you think Labour will start slipping in the polls. You can get 20 on Betfair on NOM.


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