politicalbetting.com

Note: This article rightly chooses to ignore the Bristol South East by-election of 1961 due to the unique if not farcical situation of that by-election Bad Leaders of the Opposition in the last 63 years such as Michael Foot and Jeremy Corbyn lost seats they held in by-elections to the governing party. Sir Keir Starmer joined that infamous list in 2021 but there was a lot of mitigation in that, that by-election took place in the midst of the vaccine…

Read More Read More

This morning Galloway was the favourite this morning to win the by election but as we can see now Azhar Ali, the official but disowned Labour candidate, has become the favourite but the betting markets can often be wrong. I remember the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election where when the candidates walked on to the stage Labour were the overwhelming favourites at close to 1.01 on Betfair and yet when the results were announced the Lib Dems won by…

Read More Read More

Mike Smithson

If the betting is correct then overnight George Galloway will become an MP again, this time for a fifth different constituency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a result similar to the 1992 Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber result where the winning candidate won with 26\% of the vote and a mere 3.4% covered the top four candidates. If he does become an MP again then it will be fantastic to have an MP with such a great gasp of foreign…

Read More Read More

This market on Lee Anderson to defect to Reform on the face of it doesn’t present much value either side of the bet. If I was forced to choose I would back No with pennies. As we can see above speculation is running rampant after his shameful comments about Sadiq Khan which denounced by so many people, including Jewish people who pointed out you wouldn’t say that a Jewish mayor was controlled by Jews or Zionists. What may make this…

Read More Read More

Just over a fortnight ago I tipped a 50% in fewer than three months when I said Sadiq Khan would achieve the largest first round victory in London mayoral history, sadly Ladbrokes have pulled that market. It feels inevitable that Sadiq Khan will win in May, PBers will have to exercise their own judgment on whether they wish to take the 1.06 available on Khan winning on Betfair. I expect the Green and Lib Dem votes will be squeezed as…

Read More Read More

One of the big unknowns in WH2024 is how Trump’s chances could be affected if he gets convicted in the courts of a criminal offence. Currently there are quite a number of cases which the judicial system is bringing forward which could possibly be concluded before November when the Presidential election is due to be held. The former President’s strategy is to play for time and hope that nothing is concluded before the election date. This might be a lot…

Read More Read More

You know you’ve hit rock bottom when even Reform don’t want you, perhaps they’ve seen the polling. TSE