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There’s obviously the London Mayoral election, ten other Mayoral elections and the PCC contests but I’m going to look at a key Council. Nuneaton & Bedworth Council covers all or part of the Conservative-held constituencies of Nuneaton and North Warwickshire. The Conservatives took control in 2021 and in 2022 when half the 34 seats were contested, strengthened their hold and currently have 27 seats with Labour on 5 and the Greens on 2. Boundary changes have increased the seat number…

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I love facts like this. TSE

Can we please have constituency markets and spreads for the general election? We are potentially a few weeks away from a general election and as far as I can see there are no individual constituency markets so we cannot bet on the most intriguing seats like Didcot & Wantage. There are also no seat spread betting opportunities which is where loins are girded and some of my biggest ever political wins have occured. I followed Mike Smithson in selling Tory…

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I am sticking with my assumption of an October/November election. TSE

The world is changed, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air, I see it in the polling, the era of Boris Johnson is over. The stand out figure is that even a majority of Leavers do not want him back as an MP, even more so than the fact 2019 Tories are evenly split on the question. If this question asked if the country wanted Boris Johnson back as…

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My expectation is that it will have no material impact on May’s elections, as noted in the Tweets above, those who were excited about Sir Keir’s curries will become similarly excited. However if she is charged I suspect she will have to resign from the shadow cabinet until she is cleared by the courts as politicians cannot be seen to break electoral law, Caesar’s wife and all that jazz. TSE

I suspect Best for Britain might be wrong because last year Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted the voter ID changes were an attempt at voter suppression that backfired he said “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting on voter ID for elections….We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they, by and large, voted Conservative, so we made it hard for…

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Back in 2021 the final Redfield & Wilton poll for the London Mayoral election had Sadiq Khan leading Shaun Bailey, the Tory candidate, by 21% in the first round, Khan’s actual lead in the first round was fewer than 5%. If we have a similar polling failure and with a bit of differential turnout due to Sadiq Khan being the incumbent and people thinking Labour are going to win we could see an upset thanks to the government changing the…

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