I know it is gauche to remind people you are right but I have been dubious about the projected landslides the traditional voting intention polls indicate mostly due to the toxic legacy Starmer inherited (in 1997 Tony Blair started with 271 seats whereas Starmer starts on 202.) It isn’t all doom and gloom for Labour, I suspect if a narrative holds that there will be a hung parliament it will drive up anti Tory tactical voting at the general election…
Having tipped Street and Hall at 4s and 28s I am feeling rather smug but I only expect to see Street to win because Hall winning would be the greatest collective polling failure in UK history. I wonder what lessons the parliamentary Conservative party will take from the victory by Houchen and the anticipated Street victory? I think it bodes ill for Sunak particularly when compared to the council results. TSE
It’s been a very grim night so far to the Tories, whilst it hasn’t been a perfect night for Labour some at CCHQ see a pathway to Susan Hall winning, I have my doubts but I won’t complain if my 28/1 bet on Hall winning comes to pass. TSE
MRP polls are the polls that attract the most attention on PB. I have my doubts about MRPs that aren’t conducted fewer than three months before the actual election. The election results can give us something tangible to benchmark against these MRPs. Britain Elects have publish a forecast too I am calling it an early night as we can see from expected declaration times most of the results will not come tonight and the major mayoral results are not due…
This is the polling we have on polling day and Professor Jennings is being playful, it is why I always prefer net ratings as they provide context which can drive up tactical voting because Sir Keir Starmer is also the fourth most unpopular politician in the country. Think of it like a football there’s no point scoring three goals in a match (positive ratings) and concede 4 (negative ratings), sometimes it is better to score 2 and concede none. As…
The cynic in mean thinks the primary reason that Kate Forbes has decided not to run is that no matter who leads the SNP the SNP will suffer a very bad night at the upcoming Westminster election so it is better for John Swinney to take the hit for the potential Scötterdämmerung looming for the SNP rather her. This is the sort of cunning you should expect from somebody who read history at the University of Cambridge. She’s just turned 34…
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has become infamous for effectively admitting the photo ID laws for voting were designed to bugger up Labour and their voters. If the Tories were truly concerned about election integrity they would have cracked down on postal voting as well but they didn’t. With a poll published yesterday showing Khan’s lead over Susan Hall down to 10% it only takes some sample variation, differential turnout, and this voter suppression tactic to hand Susan Hall victory under the…
Given the absolute effort that the Tories have made against Angela Rayner her ratings really haven’t changed, this fits in with my belief that the electorate have given up on listening what the Tories have to say. The scandal such as it is isn’t likely to get pulses racing, it doesn’t get attention in say getting your wife to commit perjury by taking your speeding points or shooting your gay lover’s dog. Even if she hasn’t paid capital gains tax…