Overnight it was reported in The Times that Tory rebels had stopped their plans to oust Sunak because of the Tories winning the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayorships. The latter is looking unlikely at the moment. If Street does lose the rebels may decide to try and oust Sunak as from the local council elections, to the by election, and the key mayoralties it has been a truly terrible set of elections for the Tories. TSE
At no point has Susan Hall been the favourite or close to becoming the favourite but it has been a bit frantic for some. Hopefully those who backed Susan Hall at long odds have been able to trade out for a profit. TSE
I am keeping calm because that is my nature and the fact a few weeks ago I tipped Susan Hall to win at 28s, I would urge others to do the same. If Starmer wins the general election he might change the voting system to the alternative voting system for London and Westminster, after all the Labour leader is elected by the alternative voting system and the Tory leader is elected under a form of quasi-AV. If it is good…
I know it is gauche to remind people you are right but I have been dubious about the projected landslides the traditional voting intention polls indicate mostly due to the toxic legacy Starmer inherited (in 1997 Tony Blair started with 271 seats whereas Starmer starts on 202.) It isn’t all doom and gloom for Labour, I suspect if a narrative holds that there will be a hung parliament it will drive up anti Tory tactical voting at the general election…
Having tipped Street and Hall at 4s and 28s I am feeling rather smug but I only expect to see Street to win because Hall winning would be the greatest collective polling failure in UK history. I wonder what lessons the parliamentary Conservative party will take from the victory by Houchen and the anticipated Street victory? I think it bodes ill for Sunak particularly when compared to the council results. TSE
It’s been a very grim night so far to the Tories, whilst it hasn’t been a perfect night for Labour some at CCHQ see a pathway to Susan Hall winning, I have my doubts but I won’t complain if my 28/1 bet on Hall winning comes to pass. TSE
MRP polls are the polls that attract the most attention on PB. I have my doubts about MRPs that aren’t conducted fewer than three months before the actual election. The election results can give us something tangible to benchmark against these MRPs. Britain Elects have publish a forecast too I am calling it an early night as we can see from expected declaration times most of the results will not come tonight and the major mayoral results are not due…
This is the polling we have on polling day and Professor Jennings is being playful, it is why I always prefer net ratings as they provide context which can drive up tactical voting because Sir Keir Starmer is also the fourth most unpopular politician in the country. Think of it like a football there’s no point scoring three goals in a match (positive ratings) and concede 4 (negative ratings), sometimes it is better to score 2 and concede none. As…