politicalbetting.com – Page 851 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Jon Trickett – Labour’s man to sort out the outsourcing mess?

6/2/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Don Brind on the politics of the post-Carrilion world When Jon Trickett was leader of the Leeds City Council in the early 90s he had a regular Friday date with finance department officials. He got them to bring along every bill the council had paid that week. He then pulled out at random a number of bills to prompt a discussion on whether the ratepayers had got value for money from suppliers. “I hate waste” declares Trickett and his hands-on…

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New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived as being pro-Brexit

6/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It also suggests a way back for the LDs The Stop Brexit pressure group Our Future Our Choice has published a YouGov poll it commissioned which suggests that LAB’s poll rating could drop from 39% to 30% if it goes into the next election backing or having backed Brexit. The big dangers comes from the very same group of voters who were behind the party’s better than expected performance at GE2017 – those under 40. It finds that 73% of…

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Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

5/2/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a…

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Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite

5/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The father of 6 who has never changed a nappy now a 16% chance – Corbyn 14% Over the weekend there has been a big change on the next prime minister betting market on Betfair. The long-standing favourite since the general election, Mr Corbyn, has now slipped to second place behind Jacob Rees-Mogg who is attracting a lot of betting support at the moment for both the CON leadership and the next occupant of Number 10. Rees-Mogg has been the…

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Brexit in Name Only – BINO – or the BEANO!

5/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Thanks to Nicholas Leonard and Helen Cochrane. This made me laugh which is always a good starting point. Meanwhile are we edging to a challenge to TMay? Watch this space. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising their chances of picking up former Remain voters

4/2/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

What are government policies for? If you were to ask the average member of the public, they would probably tell you that they were to set the best way possible for running the country on the particular topic at hand. Of course, that hasn’t always or even usually been the main point of government policies. In most countries in most eras, government policies have mostly been designed to benefit the interests of an elite. Kings rarely thought about the impact…

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R.I.P. The Conservative Party 1834-2018 if the Brexiteer dream is realised

4/2/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

SUNDAY TIMES LEAD: ‘Brexiteer Plot’ by @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/70OGZyDhvO — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) February 3, 2018 It’s either a/the customs union or remaining Prime Minister Mrs May. Until Mrs May voluntarily stands down or is forced out we’re going to be subjected to stories like this. What is interesting is that it is the more fundamentalist Brexiteers that are revolting. I suspect Mrs May will propose a much more pragmatic deal than these Brexiteers are prepared to accept, so taking the…

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The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence

3/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Wikipedia How the parties are faring north of the border Next week I’m off to Scotland the part of the UK that played a critical part in the outcomes of GE2015 and GE2017. For since the IndyRef in September 2014 there has been a huge amount of turbulence in Scottish politics. At the last two general elections there’ve been more seats changing hands there than anywhere else in the UK. Initially the failure to win independence in September 2014 saw…

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